Coincidentally, $3.56 is my average price. I could have sold my entire holding and broken even, then bought back in at a ten percent plus discount. Nah. If I'd done that, we would have attracted a take-over bid, or kept going to $4.00. Mr. Market hates me! I'm just not that good, and know nothing about technical analysis or trading. Pity! I commend Dan for his trade. Well done, mate. I sometimes think of him sitting somewhere in Singapore with a huge computer monitor in his luxury apartment, making huge profits off cleverly-thought-out analysis and trades. All I can do is buy modestly, then add to my position on weakness while I collect dividends and wait for commodity prices to turn-around. Much respect to you, Dan.
I don't know why, but I just love base metals and S32.
RedDirtDan mentions under-investment, and we've all seen the graphs about the huge drop in investment over the past few years, alongside the expected future demand. Rick Rule often mentions in interviews that oil and gas investment is short by about US$1b per day ($365b per year). I suspect the same is true for most commodities.
In the end, what will affect our fortunes is higher prices. And for long term holders, a sharp turn-around will probably come when we least expect it. When everyone has almost given up on the idea of bulk commodities trading at higher prices, they will move upwards. I know S32 has favoured profitability in the past, rather than simply digging up more and more metals to increase revenue. Hopefully that's what they've been doing this quarter.
We moved from $3.20 to $3.50 on the back of GS's $3.80 buy recommendation. You only need to look at the various professional, years-of-training, analysts' forecasts of lithium and copper to realise we're facing higher (or lower) prices; and huge surpluses (or shortages) over the next twelve months!
In the future, the commodity price will be different than it is today. I think that sentence is about as reasonable as anyone could write. GS is very bullish on aluminium / alumina, copper, and base metals in general. I put no faith in their recommendation, nor the brokers bearish on them. But it is pleasant to read when an analyst thinks the commodity price will rise
I agree with Ash that this idea we are awaiting FID on Hermosa is a farce. I stupidly and naïvely had the lazy idea we will need to spend $2.2b (that's the amount estimated on the US government permit approvals document shared somewhere here on HC before Christmas) in one lump sum to get the mine online. If Hermosa sets us back $200-250m a quarter this year and next, that would almost cover it. I know we've spent hundreds of millions already. If we're able to sell Eagle Downs (dubious) and if the US government chips in, or we sell another asset, that would be nice. There is virtually zero chance Hermosa doesn't go ahead.
If you think about it, a successful company like Sandfire was a single, very profitable mine (DeGrussa) / one country operation. We're multi-country, multi-commodity, multi-mine operation; and with the prospect of our
single very profitable mine (Hermosa) coming online in a couple of years' time --
in addition to what we're mining currently. South32 with an operating Hermosa and that extra copper production line at Sierra Gorda, with higher commodity prices would be a formidable operation.
Rick Rule is very bullish on silver. We'd be the only manganese producer in North America (I think) and I remember GK has previously said manganese is his quiet prediction for future demand in the battery metals sector. Just don't try to tell me we're awaiting a Hermosa investment decision!
I thought we might have bought back a few more shares than we had. Hopefully the buyback continues after April instead of higher dividends.
Anyway, these are just my very uninformed thoughts.
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