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Waitsia LNG start will be around October 2023. Not October 2024.

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g12m0

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21/10/21

17:46

Post #: 56978396
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Originally posted by g12m0 ↑

Otway Basin update from the Quarterly Report:

“The Offshore Otway development drilling campaign now moves to the Thylacine targets, following successful results at Geographe 4 and 5.
“This is Beach’s largest ever drilling campaign and will be an important source of gas for the East Coast market.
“A major milestone of the quarter was signing a HOA with bp for the sale of 3.75 MT of LNG from the Waitsia Stage 2 Gas Project – heralding our arrival into global LNG markets for the first time in our 60-year history.
“We also achieved first gas from the Kupe compression project, which means that asset, which is critical for New Zealand’s energy needs, will be able to maintain production at up to 77 TJ per day.
“It is also exciting to commence an exploration campaign in the Western Flank, where we’ve already had two successful gas finds in this quarter – with an oil exploration campaign set for later in the year.”
“This is to be followed by an uplift in production from first gas from the Geographe wells and the Cooper Basin development drilling in the second half of FY22.”

Also, from the Investor Briefing Presentation on 28 September on page 28 BPT’s FY21 EBITDA margin in the Otway Basin is 83%. Which means that for every $100 in sales at Otway Basin $83 is EBITDA profit.
Remember that in FY21, Otway Basin was only running at around 33% of its 205 tj per day rated capacity. As we move to around 70% of Otway Gas Plant capacity by this January with Geographe-4 and Geographe-5 wells going into production, the EBITDA margin should easily reach 90% with the help of higher gas, condensate and LPG prices. The unit cost per boe of running Otway Gas Plant will go down a lot.
An increase of 3 mmboe production at say $ 75 per boe gives $225 m additional sales over 12 months.
Add another increase of 3 mmboe on December 2022 due to new Thylacine wells being connected .
At 90% EBITDA margin on Otway Gas Plant, do the maths how much additional money Otway Project will bring.

Waitsia LNG will come in probably in October 2024. The Waitsia money coming will be dependent on LNG JKM price at that time. LNG price upside is high.

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Waitsia LNG start will be around October 2023. Not October 2024.

BPT Price at posting: $1.44 Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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Waitsia LNG start will be around October 2023. Not October 2024.

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