"Reaching guidance will be very difficult. They will need to...

"Reaching guidance will be very difficult. They will need to increase production by 85% to 26,000oz this qtr to reach the fiscal and calendar year targets."


I have to say the ever-reducing guidance and disappointing quarter-on-quarter production numbers make me quite angry. If they can't produce 26Koz this quarter when the quarter is one-third gone already, what are they playing at?

Just come clean. Everyone understands why production is sacrificed for long-term benefit. But why haven't they been more realistic/conservative with FY13 targets? Can they really produce 26Koz when there's a 4 week shut-down in June/July? How are they going to do that, do they take us for fools, why not explain HOW... less development ore, more stoping ore, from what levels etc?. Why not say so in the quarterly? How much development ore has been stockpiled and at what grade etc?

All of this is more of a nuisance in my opinion because they've been kicking goals, albeit delayed, under trying circumstances and the numbers do look fantastic, even using conservative assumptions. They've been mainly bringing waste to surface as they drive south from the Saga shaft at Level 8 this year. It takes time to open up the mine and develop ore passes from upper levels.

They can comfortably produce 200Koz pa from just 8 gpt ore at the 2500tpd throughput and 90% recovery... MD reckons they can get to 94%. They've been achieving that grade in the three quarters before the latest one, even with a high development focus.

As someone here said, their $9m cash/bullion position is a concern but if they do produce near 26Koz this quarter, it won't be a worry. To be safe they've scaled back exploration, and their cash position only reduced $7m in the March quarter despite low 14Koz production.