No company is interested in moving forward with a technology that is going to strap them to the whims of China's REE strategy. There are not enough ROW REEs to support the EV revolution. BMW knows it and left. China knows they have them locked up and are full speed ahead.
Lynas is Japan's only secure supply of REEs. And they probably could support all Japanese automakers EV plans for as long as their resources last, a mere ~12 years. But then what? That's the problem. Twelve years is just not worth it. They wouldn't want to use REEs anymore than BMW does. That's why BMW doesn't use them.
If Japan is confident in supply security and moving ahead, it strongly suggests to me that Lynas has extended their AP ores in a big way and demonstrated they can be economically exploited / extracted. Might even have new good numbers on underlying TR and FR.
Developments such as that could give Japan 20 or 30 years production support. That's supply security. That's a difference-maker.
Some numbers: Japan is making ~8M vehicles per year. At 2 kg NdFeB per unit, at 25% NdPr content, that's 4000 tpa NdPr without swarf. Obviously not getting there anytime soon, and no way all of NdPr ends up in EV traction motors.
Lynas is a "hold" in my opinion primarily due to political risks associated with long-term radioactive materials storage. If they get Condisoil approval, I'm buying. If they get denied, I held too long and would run for the exit. Happy to hold now, but watching everything imaginable like a hawk.
(20min delay)