Your maths looks ok. The sp will take time to catch up.
The following is only an opinion. Please do your own research. The main motivation for answering was to clarify the potential value of APG and an attempt to drive the share price up. (We will see if it works).
What we have been told: 1) Plant to generate $7 mill profit. (maybe 2013) full production. The estimate may be wrong assume a 20% error $5.6 million profit. As you suggest on a PE of 10 5.2c per share (2013).
Value of the technology: EARS We have been told there are interested Steel manufacturers that want to use APG's technology. Some guess-timates ie. 1 plant with 5 times the capacity of test plant running by (2014) generating $35 million (assume royalty of 5% and assume support fees 5%) therefore $3.5 million to APG. On a PE of 10 assume approximately 3.3 cents per share.
ERMS If APG complete BFS and setup an ERMS plant (In presentation 19/11/2010 APG propose to follow up interests in an ERMS SR plant in Australia- assume completion 2015). From 2008 investor presentation assume $45 million per year (capital cost $120million) using a PE of 10 then we reach 42c per share.
Uncertainties: The court case is a lingering in the background. If APG win court case $5mill in bank approx. 0.5 cents per share.
Frustrations: 1) The rare earths sector is now "hot" and APG is not ready to fully showcase its processes. This would have made raising capital and completing deals easier. 2) The ERMS BFS was not continued in parallel with the plant upgrade. In my opinion there was plenty of time to keep the task ticking over in parallel (without taking up too many resources).
APG Price at posting:
4.4¢ Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
