When I have time Iwill redo/purge my model done quickly overnight. Some things I did not capture for example the sneaky 0.9% charge on gold sales included with the 7%pa+LIBOR deal.
You see, with banks it's not the base rate , its a little of the margin but mainly all the fees and gouging they grab from everywhere else is where they make the money..not the headline loan rates.
CAMIF by the way is not a bank but:..
CAMIF is a private investment fund whose participants include a number of leading institutional investors". Think vulture capital or private equity hyaenas. The banks set this type of grub up to do the dirty business they can't do on their own balance sheets.
Paul's comment on recovery and the POG give PGI a very very narrow window to get PGI price up as high as possible in order to drive the valuation to be performed to allow PGI's "new best friends" from the DRG to pay top dollar. (See below but my calcs suggest they need to get at least another 40m to get to 33.5%. I may have missed something, but if the valuation can get to an NPV as high as possible through recovery and POG, they will hve to pay for it!
BJ chose a very interesting choice of words.."...
ALCIP demanded that the Company issue ALCIP..". Compare with "requested" ...gives an idea by comparison.
Also ".
.these options that could see ALCIP and associates ultimately increase their holding in PGL to a maximum of 33.5%." There is hidden info in this number, the extra 40m needed, hence an idea of how much share goes to DRG's friends.
I will guess, until more evidence to contrary, that loan sharking is not a term unfamiliar to CAMIF - what will CAMIF/ALCIP do with all that equity? They are not a bank.
I built a shareholder table. Some illuminating material. For CAMIF to get to 33.5% implies another 42.7million shares must be issued to whomever is in the slot for the post-mine investment ownership as requested by DRG.
Also revealing is how BJ has leveraged himself. Judge for yourself. After adding in all of CAMIF and assoc plus BJ conversion of his loan shares and attached options this is the "FINAL" result.
|
Column 1 |
Column 2 |
Column 3 |
| 1 |
|
1-Dec-2015 |
Final |
| 2 |
CAMIF |
9.3% |
33.5% |
| 3 |
Moonstar (=BJ) |
8.1% |
29.7% |
| 4 |
Mercury |
15.9% |
7.10% |
| 5 |
Remaining 17 of Top 20 |
27.7% |
12.40% |
| 6 |
Riff-Raff |
39.0% |
17% |
| 7 |
Total Shares |
133,359,382 |
282,103,619 |
I welcome everyone to have a guess at shareholdings and make corrections as necessary. There are many updates and timing but hopefully the table shows where we were and after the dust is settled.
Here's a very dismal feature: the total float outside of three big guys is less than 30% of the company. This means nothing for big funds to buy into and push the price, basically PGI will be illiquid! Now circle back and wonder what CAMIF will do with their shares?
Footnote: A quick scan of the 2015 AR shows net assets of $28.49m and intangibles (intangibles are money gone for no asset value, the usual example is Goodwill, in PGI's case just wasted) $19.96M, so the real asset value (
Net Tangible assets) is a paltry $8.53m. This highlights the importance of achieving future cash flows.
