Guidance for March Qtr is gold 11,600 and silver 79,400. If we...

Guidance for March Qtr is gold 11,600 and silver 79,400. If we divide the silver by 70 to get 1,134, then add this to the gold (11,600) we get 12,734 Gold Equivalent oz’s for the qtr. Divide 12,734 by 13 to get 979 oz for the weekly target. Understandably, their weekly average for Dec qtr was not revealed - undoubtedly they are too embarrassed to publicise that actual production was less than 800 oz/wk. How the hell do they now expect to jump December’s sub 800 oz up to 979 in Q1 with only 8 weeks remaining ?? It will clearly take a miracle, but here’s hoping. To me it is nothing short of an extremely foolish target, more so when you take into account that they have never met any target in the past that I can recollect !
   
As they have already supplied us with production figures for the first 5 weeks of Q1 that add up to 4,188 oz we can subtract this number from the 12,734 and see that to meet target they will need to produce 8,546 oz in the next 8 weeks. Assuming they stick with the 6 weekly maintenance schedule we can expect 2 more maintenance weeks in that time with production of about 680 (estimate) for each of those 2 weeks. Subtracting 2 x 680 from 8,546 leaves them 7,186 oz to get in just 6 weeks, ie 1,198 oz per week (a jump of nearly 250 from last week), and that is starting from now, this week.
To achieve this rather dramatic increase in the production rate at guidance throughput will need the recovery rate to jump from sub 50% to above 61.5% immediately which unfortunately is not likely to happen. Last week’s production of 950 oz at throughput of 16,500 (from the chart) represents a recovery rate of ~ 44%  To get this up to 61% requires a 38% increase !!!


Hopefully I have assumed wrongly about the maintenance weeks and they may have done some general maintenance in the week that the Isa Mill was shut down leaving only one more week of maintenance in this quarter. In which case:
We can expect 1 more maintenance week this qtr with production of about 680 (estimate) for the week. Subtracting 680 from 8,546 leaves them 7,866 oz to get in just 7 weeks, ie 1,123 oz per week (a jump of 173 from last week), and that is starting from now, this week. Naaah, this would still need the recovery rate to jump to 58% immediately - also out of the question.