I am attempting to calculate B2B figures. Based on info from Wine Australia a total of 1.3B litres = 144.44M x 9L cases was sold for $6.36B in 2018/19 equating to an average price of about $44 per case.
DW8 will generate $44 x 10% = $4.40 trading fees per case.
DW8 currently ships about 25,000 pcm x 12 = 300,000 cases run rate pa / 144.44M = 0.2% market share. Based on current circa 15% MOM cases growth DW8 logistcis is forecast to ship 1,605,075 cases run rate pa in 12 months = 1.1% market share.
Every 1% market share in Australia for logistics = 1.444M cases x $17.90 = $25,847,600 revenue x 20% margin = $5,169,520 profit.
Every 1% market share in Australia for B2B = 1.444M cases x $4.40 trading fees per case average = $6,353,600 revenue/profit.
Thus every 1% market share for B2B/Logistics in Australia equates to $11,523,120 profit for DW8 less staff/admin costs. DW8 should break even with 1% market share in Australia in 12 months.
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