Impossible to understand the company's valuation without zooming out and viewing what is coming online atm. To sound like a broken record, you have to look beyond the logistics revenue (which itself is looking bullish for this FY). Even Steve is (prudently) being conservative in his FY22 revenue calculations as we have additional higher-margin drivers activing atm. Current buildout is all foundational and:
As has been alluded to by a few posters, the main revenue drivers/levers are still in the process of coming online. By EOY2021 we have:
- National 'Market' rollout which will bring 10% clip.
- 'Liquidity' offering (via 'Market') and associated clip.
- 'Direct' offering and associated sales transaction clip, and logistics boost via these additional sales channels (remember our suppliers are currently still doing all the selling themselves via their own channels).
- ITC and associated logistics boost (and probably revenue % clip as well, given club will be via Market).
Essentially, investors need to consider (regularly) the following bullet points, and understand that only LOGISTICS and CONNECT have been generating revenue currently (discount MARKET for now as it ramps up).
So factoring in that ALL income channels are coming online before EOY21, it is hard not to feel bullish, and it is easy to see why the growth multiple is what it is.
This beast is being built prior to international replication, remember. What happens to growth when we go ex-AU/NZ? (rhetorical)
P.S. A cynical interpretation of the recent PWG acq is that DT is just synthesizing additional revenue to achieve his performance shares which expire soon. But imo this is just a great alignment and playout of management incentives (which are necessary: vested/incentivised interest is, on balance, a good thing). I think the acquisition is a master stroke that will underpin stronger growth across all five revenue generating channels. And just to reiterate, we can now pass the vetting test of major suppliers with flying colours.
(20min delay)