Have been analysing the figures in more detail today.
Pro-forma of $4.65M for 312.5k cases compared to $5.25M expected pro-forma = down $600k.
$4.65M pro-forma revenue - $3.04M actual revenue = $1.61M additional revenue.
312,500 cases pro-forma - 213,159 actual cases = 99,341 additional cases.
$1.61M / 99,341 cases = $16.20 per case for Parton's. Forecast was $1.25M / 60k cases = $20.83 per case so it appears they have reduced the pricing by 22.2%.
There are about 7 weeks of Parton's figures in leau of 13 weeks = 53.85%.
30.5k DW8 cases actual July
33.5k DW8 cases estimate August
37k DW8 cases estimate September
Total of 101,000 DW8 cases estimated. 213,159 total cases - 101,000 DW8 cases = 112,159 Parton's cases / 7 weeks = 16,022.7 cases per week x 13 = 208,295 cases pro-forma for Parton's & the estimate at acquisition was 180,000 cases per quarter.
208,295 / 180,000 = +15.7% growth in Parton's already most likely due to DW8 volume going through Parton's in leau of third party providers.
$4.65M pro-forma revenue - $21k B2B Fees = $4.629M / 312.5k cases = $14.81 average per case for logistics.
312.5k cases + 20% QOQ growth = 375k cases x $14.81 = $5.55M + $90k Kaddy 1 month + $40k Winedepot fees = $5.68M Q2 FY22 forecast.
375k cases + 20% QOQ growth = 450k cases x $14.81 = $6.66M + $315k Kaddy + $80k Winedepot = $7.05M Q3 FY22 forecast.
450k vases + 20% QOQ growth = 540k cases x $14.81 = $8M + $390k Kaddy + $150k Winedepot = $8.54M Q4 FY 22 forecast.
540k cases + 20% QOQ growth = 648k cases x $14.81 = $9.6M + $465k Kaddy + $300k Winedepot = $10.365M Q1 FY 23 forecast.
$10.365M / $3.04M Q1 FY22 = +241% YOY has a multiple of x28 for fair value.
$10.365M x 4 = $41.46M run rate x 28 = $1,160.9M MC / 2.5B SOI = about 46c SP.
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