CXZ 0.00% 2.8¢ connexion mobility ltd

Ann: Quarterly Report, page-34

  1. 3,387 Posts.
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    I personally think it is unlikely that there will be a massive breakthrough in the next 6 months, but I do expect solid ongoing top-line growth and a neutral bottom line for the medium-term future. I think it is very likely GM will be renewed in 2026 as they continue to do ongoing customisation work which deepens their relationship (although this is a risk nonetheless). In the long term (2-5 years), I wouldn't be surprised if CXZ starts optimising for bottom-line profitability, at which point this would trade on a very low PE (and could pay dividends). But, first and foremost, they need to continue focusing on deepening relationships with existing and new customers and diversify customer concentration risk. Following the equity incentive plan employees now have "skin in the game" and so this should help with staff retention and performance. Also, as far as I am aware, the #1 shareholder continues to retain his 72 million unit holding (worth A$1m+ at-cost). The shareholder register hopefully can tighten up further. Most individuals here are underwater (including myself) and so the share price needs to gradually churn higher with steady progress. I'd be happy with 2c by the end of CY2023 and 3c by the end of 2024. That would be a market cap of ~A$18m and ~A$27m, respectively. Unless one believes that GM won't be renewed (in 2026), there seems to be minimal downside at this price, given i) they are profitable and ii) the EV is ~A$6m versus gross profit of ~A$5.5m pa. I'm taking nothing for granted but confident in the team nonetheless. Let's see what happens.
 
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