Nice post Cadel
One of the funnier posts I have read for a while, we needed some humor after yesterday’s response to the quarterly.
Firstly I love the I sold out and made a profit now its going to turn to sheet guys, and I’m feel the need to tell everyone that they will be doomed.
Secondly there are lots of errors in the post
Thirdly and my favourite “trust me I know what I’m talking about” I’m thinking Garden is in that zone that we all go through between 16 and 19 when we think we know it all and don’t know what we don’t know. To check my hypothesis I only had to click on one of his previous posts. I know we all need a good laugh so here it is
https://hotcopper.com.au/threads/blue-sky.3063299/page-20?post_id=20840753#.Wl55aKbZWhA
In any other sector at any other time trading with no idea would be dangerous but even Garden can make money in this.
Someone mentioned being worried about the long termers attitude this morning, don’t worry buddy most of us longer termers have been through a lot with this stock. Sure it has been a nice ride lately but we have seen days, weeks, months and even years of big down periods many of which have been created through manipulation hence the worried attitude towards the short term bumps sometimes. But those of us that are left are looking long term and there is no competition. We do know, however, there there will be more bumps in the rode. Those dropping out at the first sign of trouble is how we have instos holding so much and another coming on board above 5% today. Maybe Garden should ring black rock and UBS and tell them to get out as “he knows what he is talking about”.
Now comparing us with PLS, AJM and TAW. PLS and AJM have nice big resources and will do well no doubt but they have massive debt at high rates that will take about the same time to pay it off as it will take us to get both JB and SDV up and running. They will have no room for error as they need to meet the debt payments and their offtake commitments (that are locked in at lower values then we currently are getting). So we have a mine that is running beautifully and bring in $100+ million a year, have no debt and do not have to pay any tax for a couple of years. So by the time PLS and AJM are in our position we will have (or be close to having) 3 mines running bring in $500+ million a year. All this and we have about the same MC as PLS. TAW is in a different boat since they have next to no debt, have a much smaller MC and have a fair bit of upside on the resource side, hence I’m in that one.
So yes there will be more scary days along the way to try and part you from your shares but the future is rosy. My prediction is more ups and downs along the way until the shorts are below 5% then the nice steady rise to the stars.
As far as the quarterly I need to read it closer, but from what I have gathered it simply confirmed that we are in the position that we expected (a nice one at that). A nice mature report that states the facts and is not grandstanding. So it is each to their own has to how we play the games out but for me I’m sticking, the manipulators are not going to play the same hand each time so while we the manipulation last year was played out over a longer period i believe they will mix it up a bit now to try and catch us out.
