"............RAP has an insane amount of potential right now ............"
Hard to argue with that at face value fb. Lets confine the postulating to just Covid. Think we can safely assume there has now been enough testing to lean on the side of giving the science an uptick - it works. So then for some real rough back of envelope calcs. Using numbers for Rat(s) according to https://www.researchandmarkets.com/reports/5238566/rapid-test-kit-market-global-industry-size reckon we can say total market size is circa $20 mil p/a. Cant seem to nail down any solid numbers from any of the agreements signed so lets go the other way for RAP outcomes. For every 1 mil tests where they receive $0.10 then yearly rev would be $36.5 million so 10 mil tests @ $0.10 would generate $365 mil. or 1 mill tests at $0.2 would generate $73 mil rev.
Obviously the questions become what would be the revenue per test to RAP and how many would they capture however willing to bet that if marketing was solid that the numbers above would be considered somewhat conservative. Point being I have to agree with you that $100 mil for the business even as it stands today would seem to be undershot so we come back to the same question - why would Pfizer even go to the trouble (& cost) of tabling such a (seemingly) low ball offer ? What do they know that the average mug punter does not ? As someone suggested, is this a case of open with a very low bid and when required increase it by 50 - 100% to make it look much better but actually still less than fair value. What is fair value ? - I have hear figures of up to $2 per share which would be a MC of circa $1.7 bil - a long way from the $100 mil offer.
Then one really has to question what does the BoD & management know that has convinced them the $100 mil offer is fair and reasonable ? Sure it could be a strategic play where they are confident it will get voted down however suggest given the role of the BoD is to represent the best interests of all SH's probably not a great way to build a career, especially if the business receives other offers or goes on to be successful outside the offer. My sensible brain says I should be glad not to have taken the punt just prior the offer date while my punters brain is telling me it is still a no brainer risk reward play where another offer has to be made. Maybe I should put an offer in at $0.109 knowing the wall at $0.11 will mean it does not get taken up or failing that I guess I could simply ask the advice of the matrimonial treasurer - that would bring a quick end to any indecision !
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"............RAP has an insane amount of potential right now...
Currently unlisted. Proposed listing date: 4 SEPTEMBER 2024 #
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