Good quarter - this coming half shaping up to be a big one as they have reaffirmed guidance.. additional A$50m revenue or thereabouts? (haven’t factored in hedges or payability) View attachment 6772110
What I was shocked at was the company didn’t really address this comment in the call.. as I’ve said here before the biggest risk here is the geological model at Federation is wrong. If it is per the prior studies it should print… and recoveries are exceeding plan which is positive, just hope this is a nothingburger. Thoughts?
As someone with some concern over the Federation geological model given the question marks raised in the quarterly I ran over the Great Cobar numbers shared by the company in the 2021/22 PFS.
The PFS if any recall had a measly $9m NPV. But it had just 2.3Mt inventory (resource is 8.6Mt) and used A$2,103/oz gold and A$,10,272/t copper. These inventory and commodity price assumptions are clearly stale... but so too would be the opex & capex.
STILL - I think if we bump the inventory up to 4mt, and make the adjustments to price and opex the NPV could materially move here...
The shares are trading at A$340m.. theres A$100m of cash in there... how much of the remaining A$240m is attributed to Federation? How much to Great Cobar..? how much to the 6Mt of M&I of ~2g/t Au, 1.2% Cu & the zinc/lead across Chesney, New Cobar, Perseverance, Peak & Kairos...? how much to Hera plant?
There's a few hand grenades here that could blow up as commissioning of projects occur but there also seems to be quite a few hidden upside surprises... like Great Cobar.
A personalised tool to help users track selected stocks. Delivering real-time notifications on price updates, announcements, and performance stats on each to help make informed investment decisions.
(20min delay)