Ann: Quarterly update and outlook - March 2022, page-25

Hey @wassa
have you looked into AMI at all?

It looks very undervalued if you look past the distracting shit show that is Dargues.

I've been averging in over the last few weeks.

Their Federation and Great Cobar Projects look like absolute cash cows. The Federation FS is due soon and theres a good chance that the Fed discounted cashflow model shows an NPV higher than AMI'S current EV! The current MRE for Fed sits at over 5 million tons with a gold equivalent ore grade of greater than 8gt.
The kicker for me is the Federation ore body is still open in multiple directions.

AMI's last quarterly seemed very poor on the surface but it wasn't as bad as the headline numbers suggest.

AMI will add 21.9 million dollars worth of concentrate stockpiles to the June quarters cash build.

AMI should have a much improved cash build of around 37 million for the June quarter. I worked this out using an estimate of 27,500oz gold sold (they need to produce this amount to hit their revised yearly guidance production figure of 104,000oz), gold sales price of $2,550 per oz and a mid guidance AISC of $1,450.

This would mean AMI's net cash balance will be approx 90 million which leaves them with a current EV of approx 392 million.

Going back to Federeation, if they prove up third of the 5.1 million tons of resource they will have a reserve of 1.7 million tons.
1.7 million tons x 8g = 13,600,000 grams
13,600,000 grams / 31.1 = 437,000 ounces gold equivalent reserve.
I'm presuming that AISC will be industry leading so times that by a margin of at least $1,000 and you can see why AMI is ridiculously undervalued.

This is not investment advice Wassa, I'm just interested in your opinion. Maybe I'm getting over excited and have developed confirmation bias. I haven't enjoyed watching the SP plummet over the last week or so although I'm confident this is a temporary speed hump.

Cheers....