AURELIA METALS LIMITED (ASX:AMI) - Ann: Quarterly Update and Outlook - March 2024, page-23 - HotCopper | ASX Share Prices, Stock Market & Share Trading Forum

Originally posted by bcjk3: ↑

I am relatively new as a holder and am using this post to collect my thoughts on the company and overall probability that it continues to trend higher. I have been trading it from 12-18c and have a core large holding at 18c average which I will continue to trade actively pending market conditions and metal prices. I did not hold during the bad days and do not mean for this post to torture anyone at all as I know how it feels to lose big money.

The reason I like Aurelia is that there is a confluence of factors here that increase the probability the company will continue to appreciate in value in my opinion. One of such points for me is that we are ore constrained rather than mine constrained in a well endowed location. I have faith in the exploration team and think it’s reasonable that exploration success will extend mine life and therefor capacity for the operations to reliably produce low to moderate cost concentrate to an improving metals pricing environment. Federation into Great Cobar should (post ramp up) use the latent capacity and I think both deposits will grow and there’s reasonable evidence for this in the short to medium term.

The next is the narrative shift now the old board and management have ceased. Stale holders will always provide liquidity here as they continue to offload throughout the companies resurrection. It’s human nature and it means that there is a strong free float available for any institution to join the register as inevitably they will have to come inclusion of any index’s should the market cap continue to grow. More simply I think fund managers will turn bullish on the narrative swap over time. There is little evidence of this already but plenty of brokers touting the improvements as the beginning of the road to repairing shareholder confidence so that could prove meaningful in terms of a tailwind as the companies revenues and earnings improve which I think will happen as Dargrues moves to end of life / sale and Federation ramps. Another factor here is they there’s unlikely to be any CR in a traitional sense so there’s only so many ways for people to get exposure - on market being the primary.

I think there is enough momentum here to keep it interesting but there’s nothing “sexy” about this company which gets the hot money / retail in (there are plenty of others who have the media/roadshow game down pat). If I had to take a stab in the dark I’d say most holders here are of a specific demographic who are left over from the collapse. Not that hotcopper is a gauge for people type it’s just a measure of sentiment in my opinion and i hope that does not offend anybody whatsoever it is simply a means of stating that there is only so many people who play at this end of the market and therefor less participants at the current time. I think this is a good thing as the price appreciation we’ve had in the last two months may be coming from a small group of interested people and the masses haven’t caught on yet to the potential.

I will not necessarily comment on anything macro as I think it’s guesswork at best.

The red flags for me that I want to know more about include this arbitration process as I cannot find much information online - hoping someone can add some color.

Other than that the risks are par for the course in investing in these types of plays for me, Federation ramp up being the major focus. The rest I suppose I trust management on (capital management, communication with shareholders, Cobar Basin plan) etc.

I have read thousands of analyst reports and broker targets in my life. Probably thousands more forecasts and price snapshots of what should and could be. Countless models and excel docs that state why things are undervalued and so on and none if it really ever comes true. It’s mostly just humans forming an opinion on something and trying to justify it through various descriptions.

For me, I like to keep things simple. Is the company a different company to what it once was? Are earnings expected to materially improve over the next 3-6+ months? Is there a narrative there that makes the reasonable resource investor think that Aurelia is a good vehicle to make money in as it feels “cheap” or misunderstood by the market ? I think so.

I also take great comfort from the grades here as we know grade is king in this game and gives you the optionality.

Anyway I hope my musings spurred on some thought and I’d like to see the company start presenting at some of the more traditional forums out there to generate interest. Promotion always needs to be managed delicately so as to not screw up expectations but it’s time for them to wear the new house tabard and say “it’s different this time” otherwise… is it?

Hoping others can share their thoughts at this point in time, thanks for reading

Expand

My opinion is very basic this was over sold and with gold and silver with copper going up this will follow IMO

No.	Vol.	Price($)
1	117544	19.0¢

No.

Vol.

Price($)

117544

19.0¢

Price($)	Vol.	No.
19.5¢	719433	10

Price($)

Vol.

No.

19.5¢

719433

No.	Vol.	Price($)
1	117544	0.190
9	1393486	0.180
4	140075	0.175
5	464070	0.170
7	1201179	0.165

No.

Vol.

Price($)

117544

0.190

1393486

0.180

140075

0.175

464070

0.170

1201179

0.165

Price($)	Vol.	No.
0.195	719433	10
0.200	805110	13
0.205	586451	6
0.210	1135688	10
0.215	1122793	6

Price($)

Vol.

No.

0.195

719433

0.200

805110

0.205

586451

0.210

1135688

0.215

1122793

(20min delay)
Last 19.0¢		Change 0.005(2.70%)		Mkt cap ! $321.3M

Open	High	Low	Value	Volume
18.5¢	19.5¢	18.0¢	$481.7K	2.565M

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