AMI

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18.5¢ aurelia metals limited

Ann: Quarterly Update and Outlook - March 2024, page-11

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TheLastTrader

223 Posts.

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24/04/24

11:29

Post #: 73494269
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Originally posted by precis: ↑

I think this report is better than it is being given credit for. For starters we conserved cash despite $20 million Capex spend. Of course the tax refund paid for most of it but we are a quarter closer to Federation with $106 million cash still available. In addition we have $14 million of inventory for sale this quarter to add in, and great increases in copper and gold production expected for the quarter. So if you think about it, we will probably get to the end of this quarter with still over $100 million cash. I'm pretty sure if you'd been asked if we can get to the quarter when Federation begins without using any cash, every shareholder would say how awesome that would be. So roll on Federation and keep up the good work at Peak which has more or less paid for most of the development itself. Peak has so much more to offer and like I've said, at today's prices Federation has about $3 billion of reserves and if that's an 8 year LOM at the moment (extensions to add on) then we have revenue of $375 million p.a. just from Federation.

The thing I liked most was we absorbed an unplanned maintenance stoppage and didn't use this as an excuse for our performance, but rather said how it was overcome, and we produced a reasonable outcome. That's a far cry from previous management that couldn't help but blame misfortunes on our decline instead of looking in the mirror. Federation is fast approaching now, and though we don't have a definitive start up date, we do know it is during the next quarter. As we approach this start-up there will definitely be upwards pressure.

Finally we are now operating with a full exploration budget rather than a collapsed one. This budget has successfully found an extension close to surface at Federation West, has found high grade stuff at Nymagee and some good gold at Chesney east at Peak. We aren't just planning for tomorrow but seem to have a real focus on optimizing Peak in the short term, Federation and Peak extensions will grow us through the medium term, and Nymagee, Great Cobar and more (we are drilling at Queen Bee for starters) will see us into the longer term. To me the company is looking stronger than it has in a long time.

Finally to every cloud there's a silver lining. Though I shudder at Dragues and our past management and Board, just think, if we hadn't bought it we might still have Clifford at the helm.

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the thing that urks me the frequency of unplanned maintenance and equipment failure with this company

or is that an unfair statement

AMI Price at posting: 18.5¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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0 Great analysis

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