they are now transmitting over 1m messages a Month via Zoleo apparently which is pretty impressive. (see pic below update)
It’s impossible to know how this translates to active plans and ARR as
- people may have a 25 message a month limit but only use 10-15.
- Or have a 250 message a month limit but only use 50-100
- no way to tell who is on unlimited or who makes more messages than their plan and needs to pay extra.
An example rough calc is the current quoted Australian figure is average $45 per month per active user.
so if we assume:
- 500,000 messages are on 25 message a month ($32 AUD plan) and
- 500,000 messages a month on 250 message plan ($55 per month AUD)
they are all using max 25 / 250 messages a month on the plan (they won’t be at all but this offsets not including the unlimited plan
that would mean this month:
- 20,000 active ARR subscribers on the $32 plan for total $7.6m global gross ARR
- 2,000 active ARR subscribers on the $55 plan for total $1.3m global gross ARR
more a total of 22,000 active plans and $8.9m current JV total ARR
the figures are vary subject to what inputs you model. Let’s say for a different example:
- 750,000 messages are from $32 plan and they use an average 20 messages each a month
- 250,000 messages are from $55 plan and they use an average 150 messages a month
this second example would mean
- 37,500 active $32 plans for $14.4mARR
- 1,666 active $55 plans for $1.1m ARR
whichever way you look at it there is a high plume of devices who’s plans are active. You would have to assume though given vast majority are in US and Canada where is summer currently we may see variability throughout the year.
@Access2020 when you do a subsequent update to your assumed models with end year financials would be great to use this figure as a sense check input to cross reference whether correlates to your active plan assumptions (subject to all the variables obviously)
