I don't hall access to the full report msimmo but these extracts provide further insights:
Morgans Add 10 Feb 2022
Alliance Aviation Services posted a FY20 profit (NPBT) figure of $40.7m that was in-line with recent guidance and consensus. Morgans points to extremely strong trends in 2H20 for aircraft utilisation and company outlook comments for earnings growth in FY21 that were above the broker’s expectations. Accordingly, Morgans upgrades NPBT estimates by 9.1%, 4.5% and 11.5% for FY21, FY22 and FY23, respectively. The company’s outlook comments identified key opportunities including the conversion of short-term contracts to long-term charter contracts, an expected sustained increase in flight schedules for a number of clients to pre-covid-19 levels and the gradual recovery in Revenue Per Transaction (RPT) revenues and benefit of new routes launched. Morgans sees progress on resuming Virgin wet lease services as the near-term catalyst for the stock. The rating of Add is maintained. the target price is increased to $4.00 from $3.65.Sector: Transportation. Target price is $4.00.Current Price is $3.60. Difference: $0.40 – (brackets indicate current price is over target). If AQZ meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Credit Suisse Outperform 10 Feb 2022
Following a weaker than predicted first half performance Credit Suisse has reduced its full year profit forecast for Alliance Aviation Services -22%, noting impacts on the operational cost base are likely to persist into the second half. First half earnings of $40m compared to the broker’s forecast $53m, with the miss largely driven by covid volatility in flying demand. One-off expenses related to the E190 fleet expansion added to the half’s profit loss, deployment is delayed three months. More positively Credit Suisse expects upside risk does exist from FY23, notably from the fleet expansion. Expect a weaker share price following first half update, an attractive opportunity for investors. The Outperform rating is retained and the target price decreases to $4.80 from $5.30.
Ord Minnett Buy 11 Feb 2022
Ord Minnett stresses FY23 story is unchanged
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