Whilst I agree the timelines may have been realistic, publishing a plan that says you're going to be running trials out to 2028 and then state you're only funded until mid next year was a mistake, as there was no plan to keep the company afloat until those critical milestones are reached.
If the plan was to be funded by dilution, the time to pull the trigger and finalise that was when we were sitting at $1.60 in July just before the plan was released, or even better at $2.00 after the cardio-protection report was released in April.
If the plan was to be funded by a licensing, partnerships and/or grants, those should have been finalised prior to the plan being released.
If the plan was to run the trials to proof-of-concept phase in 2025 and then offload onto a partner or M&A as DCB verbally stated in the Aus*Biz interview after the plan was released, that should have been stated as part of the plan.
By not doing any of those things, the market has basically called our bluff and if we need to raise capital now it will effectively need to be done at 50 cents a share. This would mean a huge amount of dilution that could have been significantly lessened with some foresight, and may potentially be worse than even a 'bad' pharma deal of some sort at this point.
Whichever way you cut it, the last 6 months or so have been a disaster from an investor relations perspective. RAC has quickly gone from being one of the better performing biotech stocks to one of the worst. Over the last 6 months, having lost 60% of our value we're underperforming even IMU (who have just announced a massive CR to bolt on yet another technology which will take fully diluted SOI from ~6.5 billion to ~8 billion) and MSB (who just received their second CRL from the FDA).
And even with their recent declines, both IMU and MSB still are sitting at 3-4x our MC. This is despite RAC having a drug that is currently offering a potential cure to 40-50% of heavily pre-treated patients in phase 2 AML single agent and combination trials (consistent with years of historical data) and more blue-sky in cardio-protection and FTO than you can poke a stick at. RAC sitting at an MC of USD 90 million (including cash) is a sad indictment on recent management and cannot all be blamed on "the market". The market is currently betting that either bisantrene doesn't actually have much value or management has little ability to extract its potential value.
So I personally am very happy that Dr T has stepped up to the plate to try to turn the ship around and show us all the bisantrene does have value and that RAC will be able to monetise that value in some way. I believe that given the maturity of bisantrene in AML being at phase 2 (assuming Sheba 2 is positive, which from all noises it appears to be), that now is the right time to be looking to a deal to take that through to commercialisation with a partner and allow RAC to focus on proving out cardio-protection and FTO and extract much more value from them later than looking to do a deal now in those indications. It would also be great to see patients finally start to benefit from bisantrene rather than having to wait until 2030+ to see any benefit and having to wait until cardio-protect and FTO are proven out and commercialised.
Dr T of course may have other ideas of course but whatever they are I really hope he can pull a rabbit or two out of the hat. I also applaud his courage in putting himself on the line and trying to help us all.
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