RAC

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$1.56 race oncology ltd

Ann: Race Initiates Extramedullary AML Preclinical Study, page-77

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30/03/21

13:26

Post #: 52141577
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Originally posted by WatchNact ↑

The closing price on 9 March was $3.90. There have been fifteen trading days between 9 March and 29 March. The average volume over that period was 1,004,535 and the total volume 15,068,031. The last ten trading days in particular have seen the volume drop to an very low average of 607,270.

Let's take yesterday's closing price of $3.84. So what we've seen over the last fifteen trading days is a drop of 1.54% in the closing price between 9 and 29 March. The highest intraday high during that same period was (very briefly) $4.23, which would hurt a little if you were the person who paid that, but the reality is there are very few people underwater in this share, no evidence to support dumping - and if you look at this through a VWAP perspective my view is that you're seeing very strong price consolidation in a tight range.

My suspicion is that the announcements have been priced in and there's not even much evidence of people selling the news - because there has been very little selling. This looks more like holders taking a position and waiting for the results of these announcements to flow through the year. Positive results from trials will no doubt cause price appreciation.

I have been wondering about the price action which looks more like a very slow leak than anything. The trading is characterised by multiple small trades which appear to be larger holders slowly downsizing their holdings while trying not to influence the price too much - an orderly exit. We know Bill Garner and Merchant have slimmed down their holdings, but looking through the announcements and comparing their activities with the price didn't indicate any negative price impact - those shares were quickly absorbed.

Having said that I consider the latest announcements to be excellent news. My view is they de-risk on the basis of execution by management. That is management have done exactly what they said they were going to do, in the exact time-frame they said it was going to happen. Why this is so difficult for so many companies is beyond my understanding?

The question now is what those results will look like. As has been said so many times the clinical results of Bisantrene have been demonstrated in multiple trials - even if we're looking at it for new iterations. Previous positive results give a strong indication of future success, in my view anyway, but time will tell. I'm certainly willing to risk my money on that outcome and the management have done nothing to make me question my risk appetite.

I say these things not because I want to get into an argument (I don't), just to point out there is no data to support a suggestion of dumping - and when looked at through the prism of closing price (during the time frame you nominated) barely any movement there either.

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Closing price is only relevant in the context of OBV/PVT comparison. There has been a lot of controlled selling, but the chart is not showing it. Anyway, maybe I am wrong and you are right and it will soar from here.

RAC Price at posting: $3.82 Sentiment: None Disclosure: Not Held
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(20min delay)
Last $1.56		Change 0.010(0.65%)		Mkt cap ! $265.8M

Open	High	Low	Value	Volume
$1.55	$1.56	$1.51	$95.69K	62.25K

Buyers (Bids)

No.	Vol.	Price($)
2	3015	$1.55

Sellers (Offers)

Price($)	Vol.	No.
$1.56	4018	1

View Market Depth

No.	Vol.	Price($)
2	3015	1.550
2	17973	1.530
1	19190	1.525
1	20000	1.520
1	500	1.500

Price($)	Vol.	No.
1.560	4018	1
1.570	4602	2
1.580	15715	3
1.600	2319	1
1.645	10000	1

Last trade - 16.10pm 23/08/2024 (20 minute delay)

RAC (ASX) Chart

Ann: Race Initiates Extramedullary AML Preclinical Study, page-77

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