Ann: Race investor briefing & updated presentation, page-42

DYOR. Analysis presented here is not intended as financial advice. You must do your own research, make your own assessment of investing risk and make your own investment decisions.​

Update of my log chart.

Rubber will now hit the road on RACE's clinical strategy.



As shown in the timeline above RACE have 6 clinical trials starting within the next 12 months. The first of these for r/r AML will be sometime this quarter.

These trials are all open label and will have continuous news flows ( on startup / recruitment ) and for data readouts ( e.g. clinical results for secondary endpoints ).

The trials activity is supplemented by a busy program of preclinical activities to support the later trials.

All this data builds the IP that will help underpin the potential revenue analysis the Big Pharma will use to value Bisantrene and RACE for partnership or buyout.

RACE are leveraging the compelling historic results in AML and Breast Cancer, backed up by the strong results in Extramedullary AML last year.



I've shown on the chart peer-based valuations.

The first of these is Synthorx bought at at early Phase 1 stage for USD $2.5B. Based on my analysis in the above post, this would equate to a buyout of RACE at around $19 per share.

Other buyout examples indicated on the chart are:

• Forty Seven which was acquired for a Leukaemia asset for USD $4.9B. This would equate to $35 per share based on 180M RACE shares fully-diluted.
• Immunomedics which was acquired for a Breast Cancer asset for USD $21B. This would equate to $151 per share based on 180M RACE shares fully-diluted.

I've used an orange diamond above to indicate the potential range where I think a fair buyout transaction would site based on peers, however due to the potential immense value of Pillar 1 for FTO I think this still could undervalue Bisantrene.

My current risked NPV for Bisantrene is USD $12.9B. See my above post for assumptions and probabilities used. This would equate to a buyout at $93 per share.

The chart also shows a current 12-month CGT window. The things to be mindful of:

• Potential tax discount in a buyout scenario (talk to an accountant).
• If a buyout offer occurs it's like to to take 3-4 months for the transaction to complete. I suggest you research previous drug development company buyouts and the stages and level of maturity that they can occur and then make your own assessment of potential timing of a RACE buyout or partnership ( and this is their strategy ).

I also suggest you do your own research on the historic results for Bisantrene and form your own views on risk and probability of success and how this might affect probability of a buyout or partnership.