DYOR. Analysis presented here is not intended as financial advice. You must do your own research, make your own assessment of investing risk and make your own investment decisions.
The $5.4M raise funds the company for accelerating trial activities. The options are expected to inject a further $31.7M of funds over the next 12 months to well-fund activities through 2022 and beyond.
The result is that the fully-diluted share issue moves from approximately 162M to 171M.
My previous valuations were conservatively using 200M fully-diluted, however I think this new funding allows me to reduce fully-diluted estimate to 180M shares. This allows for a potential future raise if needed, although this is unlikely to occur until after 2024 or alternatively if a strategic investor later joined the register. This allowance of an additional ~9M shares helps offset potential fluctuations in the exchange rate used in my valuations.
The net effect is that previous valuations are lifted by approximately 10%.
So ...
... based on Leukeamia indications and buyout of Forty Seven = fair value for buyout $35 per share
... based on Breast Cancer indication and buyout of Immunomedics = fair value for buyout $151 per share
Using a risked NPV approach factoring probability of success of the 3 pillars, current risk-adjusted value is for a buyout is $93.
RACE still have a long way to go but they are entering the sweet spot for a transaction. Many M&A transactions occur during Phase I and Phase II.
This is the current RACE activity timeline, as you can see RACE are moving trials into Phase I and II. These are designed to leverage the historic safety and efficacy of Bisantrene.
I put price targets for potential partnership at $8 to $14 per share. This is roughly based on partnerships implemented by peers with strong efficacy.
Calculations and assumptions for NPV analysis below. Although not shown in RAC's current activity timeline we are waiting for further data on Ovarian Cancer and Breast Cancer ( publishing of preclinical results in a journal ), for this reason I have included Ovarian Cancer in the NPV analysis.
Peer analysis for partnerships.
Analysis of peer buyouts, mapped to RACE Pillars.
It is worth noting what happened with Synthorx. A transaction of this scale would have an implied value of at least $9 per share. Note that the transaction occurred early in Phase I and before the trial reported results.
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