If one accepts that $3.77 is fair value, then yes those who sold today donated $2.5m to the buyers.
The rest of your maths is strange, e.g. you should use (100% - 0.4%), not (100% - 4%)
I still say that the logical closing price today would have been (1 - (6.6% * 20%)) * $3.77 = $3.72 given that there was no further news announced.
Ann: Race Oncology Share Purchase Plan Opens, page-179
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$1.94 |
Change
0.055(2.92%) |
Mkt cap ! $330.4M | |||
| Open | High | Low | Value | Volume |
| $1.89 | $1.96 | $1.85 | $333.0K | 174.5K |
Buyers (Bids)
| No. | Vol. | Price($) |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3105 | $1.94 |
Sellers (Offers)
| Price($) | Vol. | No. |
|---|---|---|
| $1.95 | 7574 | 1 |
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