@LexiconOz, keeping in mind that this is all just speculation.
I have no idea if Garner knows what RAC are doing. Irrespective of whether he does or does not; if I had AUD $25-35 million tied up in a stock that I had held from whatever stupidly small amount, then I would want to reduce my exposure. My life would absolutely be set. I could buy a new Mclaren 650S and race around Europe without a care in the world.
If he knows what RAC are doing and knows how to calculate revenue potentials, then I think maintaining a smaller position than ~8-9M shares is a good idea. Based on extensive peer analysis work that I have done and investigations into FIC/BIC drugs, I believe that if someone held 1M units of RAC and all goes well in the clinic, they have a good chance of making a return of around AUD $150M. So, if he is aware of the extreme potential that RAC have in front of them, I do not see why he wouldn't sell all the way down to 1M shares or so, bank AUD ~$20-30M, and then just let the rest ride and see what happens while he sips cocktails on a beach in France.
Everyone is probably pretty angry at Garner right now, and I understand the frustration. However, I think everyone really needs to take some time to understand what is really happening here. His shares are being sold at a discount. If this thing is bought out and breaks records, then everyone will be stoked Garner held the price down for so long (I know I will be). Hell, I'd even buy him a drink and congratulate him on the AUD ~$1 billion dollars that he missed out on.
If clinical trials are a success and the sale of Zantrene breaks records, there will be a massive shift in mentality accross investors in Australia. All those that ignored investigating the actual data and instead were cautious because the only thing they cared about was a substantial holder selling down shares will realise how pathetic their investigations were. All those who questioned RAC management and Daniel, in particular, will realise how idiotic they have sounded for the last x amount of months to years. I am patiently waiting for this day, so I can sip my whisky surrounded by the friends that I have made along this journey in complete contentness. Instead of looking towards Garner, I have based my investment decision off the
countless hours of research that I have done in this space. We now have
2 FIC/BIC opportunities in front of us and are miles ahead of the compeititon for each. Because their are now
2 enormous opportunities, the reality of achieving the largest buyout in history just became so much more palatable, which puts that money somewhere over AUD $28B.
The question everyone needs to ask themselves is how many big pharma players will be interested in and what will they pay for a drug that is FIC/BIC in
not 1, but 2 completely novel, enormous markets? My guess is many and more than ever before.
