Still a lot to read/digest but a couple of points:
Blinded research was conducted. 5x major KOLs
Uni of Chicago
Uni of Pittsburg
Uni of Cali San diego
Yale
Orlando health institute
+ a number of MCO and oncologists.
Mostly US centric figures despite other markets being much, much larger.
* They applied a 50% downward share adjustment to stated figures to be ultra conservative.
*Figures assumed on 6-8% of BC patients
*10 years to scale to peak rev (previously thought 7 approx.)
Pricing as supportive agent $3-4k per month
Pricing as anti cancer agent $15K+ per month
*Supportive care peak revenue figures (Not anti cancer)
US only $200-$300m / x3-5 = $5.29au min to $13.23au share (Transaction)
+ Other $1B / 3-5x = $26.47au min to $44.11Au share (Transaction)
*Cardio with direct anti cancer peak sales
US only $1.7b / 3-5x = $45au min to $75au share
+ Other $5b / 3-5x = $132.35au min to $220.58au share
These figures appear to be about as conservative as you can get, and that's before we even talk about AML or the FTO opportunity.
Outrageous.
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