Hi IDH.
Lots of great discussion ongoing and I appreicate all posters thoughts (even if I strongly disagree with a few of them!, not your though).
I do also feel that CEO's 4TCF is just too big for the initial resource estimate, as rarely do HC poster predictions prove conservative (including my own over the years!). I expect something like 400bcf for the contingent, with 1-1.5TCF potential, with more wells to be drilled, or a full testing of the current well.
As for what BRU had expected at Rafa:
( They were not expecting wet gas (or perhaps they were mostly hoping for oil), not that Eric is arguing).
Plus as other much wise posters have mentioned, the seismic was well out
@bhutos) though, at that depths, it was also not unexpected.
I do find it interesting that Eric is so busy with Rafa, that he is potentially neglecting the Carnarvon Basin assets...
2 wells planned? They were supposed to be shallower targets, yet, we really have heard very little. Perhaps that is just due to BRU having a small team....
As CEO has discussed, the speed at which BRU/ORG is moving to get contigent resources deliniated, is... at least for me after holding BRU for too long, is unusual. BRU has basically always held its cards close to its chest, and never rushed a contigent resource update.
I also ponder, that in the past, rigs have not been secured until April (or later...), which has led to the drill bit not hitting the dirt until June at the earliest, so.. the mention of U9 in the third quarter is not surprising. The interesting part, is whether the J/V wants to drill again this year.
To date, Eric has not even hinted at this, so... I am basically not expecting a furhter appraisal well in 2022 on Rafa. 3D seismic yes. paid for by ORG
and potentially testing of Rafa-1 (I am assuming there will be a lot more wells in the future), which may be done after U9? if we already have the rig up in the Canning. I also don't discount other possible drill targets, like the Conventional Gas Butler prospect, which ORG has the option of farming into.
Or drilling in EP431 which has the Pictor discovery (though... likely tight?) Perhaps other prospects are of more interest.
or... ORG trying to satisfy the farm-in to EP457/458 with a well, that could apprais the extent of Raffa, from the south?
Thought the 2021 seismic program, focused on finding other targets too.
Also, BRU should be getting close to releasing what they have processed for the almost $10m worth of seismic undertaken last year (expected in the June Q).
I will finish with ORGs statement on the original farmin.
I have not doubt, that many are here for trading purposes only, so I continue to expect all sorts of share price moves. With Eric transititioning out of the big chair at BRU, he is undoubtably going to try to ensure that the company is going to exist long after his eventual retirement (as in reality, I think he could have easily put the company up for sale long ago, or at least, that is the feeling I get). I take some solaice in this, as Rafa, coupled with Ungani, Yulleroo and the Valhalla basin wide tight gas accumulation, has surely proven beyond all doubt, that the Canning is a premier hydrocarbon basin globally.
(20min delay)
