Ann: Ramelius Makes Recommended Takeover Offer for Breaker, page-56

spec - the starting point is that Ramelius got suckered by Gold Road into paying way over for Apollo (Ramelius also got a similar wedgie from Alkane in going too hard after Explaurium - they also got shafted by Explaurium itself on that deal so they are developing a habit of being the mug at the table in these card games).

In hindsight I reckon kudos should go to the Apollo board for reading the tea leaves from Bardoc's decision to kill developing their gold asset back in 2021. Here is what I observed in October 2021: "The reasons given by Bardoc for calling stumps are projected materials inflation, labour shortages and 'reduced risk appetite amongst major institutional investors' for the foreseeable future. I reckon for the Apollo board to read that from Bardoc was enough for them to have some meaning-of-life conversations among themselves." My reading is that the Apollo team picked up on the approaching heavy weather and quickly changed tack (I'm not sure what St Barbara has done with the Bardoc asset since then). By acting early the Apollo team were able to sell out at a premium price to a mug punter aka Ramelius.

Some 18 months later and the torrid conditions facing the WA gold sector are unremitting. I think Major Tom and then Peter Cook gave it a good shot but in the end Breaker was left with no immediate way out (I suppose with all that cash they have they could have gone into hibernation until conditions improved). That the bad conditions have persisted for so long means that what Breaker sells for now is much cheaper than for what Apollo sold for 18 months ago.

As for whether Ramelius is paying overs for Breaker or not in light of the current record gold prices I actually don't think those prices are much of a factor in valuing Lake Roe. No one will be crunching numbers assuming those prices hold until Lake Roe goes into production. And before a Rebecca / Lake Roe production unit started selling its product at whatever the gold price will be in 3 or so years they will have to get past the rampant inflation and crushing supply chain shortages that continues to be a wrecking ball through the sector.

Disclaimer: Until recently I held BRB shares but decided to look for greener pastures so left without the 40% premium. Happy with my decision process but not with leaving so much on the table. Hope things work out for current BRB holders.