BRB 0.00% 47.5¢ breaker resources nl

Hi all, at the risk of posting this when emotions are inflamed,...

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    Hi all, at the risk of posting this when emotions are inflamed, based on previous expectations, I share some more observations and analysis.

    RMS have a modest hedge, zero debt and a positive growth profile even on a flat gold price. They have solid production and decreasing cost dynamics that may be offset by rising inflation. At least they have that offset, which is vital. They have been carefully considered as the merge partner for the sake of shareholders so I thank the Board for that consideration and due diligence. The synergies, cash position of both stocks and cautious management of RMS make this a valuable deal for both parties in my opinion.

    Of course gold explorers are not bid at present as we are deep in a global banking crisis AND risk off. The rising rates killed balance sheets of banks across the world ready for the Great (not) Reset. All that is well understood (and public) and the recent heavy plunge in gold shares was based on deleveraging, and acceptance of an updated risk paradigm. Manure is falling apart in case any of you did not notice. This is serious and a reason why we are in gold and resources at this time.

    BRB is an explorer and not in favor as the fundamentals changed for the worse at Lake Roe with the inflation pressures across the industry. At these gold prices the majority of the southern pit is rendered marginal at best. THAT means Inferred Resources are valueless while Indicated need greater scrutiny for inclusion into a Reserve (mine-able ounces). Lake Roe is NOT 1.7Moz (currently) so get that out of your heads right away. Market forces worked against Lake Roe as a stand alone over the past two years. Have we got 250koz in OP and 300koz in UG at present (with northern)? The State shut downs only exacerbated this downgrade. Do you see where I am headed here? Current reality is a bitch, but has to taken into account.

    We may or may not get a better offer in this environment. The suddenly rising gold price is working for us but RMS as well. So our leverage is better with RMS rather than without it.

    It is really important that this is an all-script offer. That means we will own a share of RMS; that is a solid producer. They have no debt which is a huge advantage in a banking collapse and rising rate environment. Their hedge book is very modest at 9 months of production and at A$2600 which is well over current and projected AISC. RMS at this stage of the investment climate is not such a bad thing at all.

    I like the look of the combined entity (proposed). This looks opportunistic by RMS because it is. Yet we "are" RMS with a takeover and with a much more certain outlook. Certainty is gold at present and gold is certainty. Learn the difference between a gold company and gold. Learn the difference between an ETF and physical and a gold company. Producers with an extant mill are at a premium right now and that is the offer we have to consider.

    There are so many "ifs" in hoping for a $1 on BRB as a lot of time is needed for exploration. The cash would only decrease as that unfolds and it is a risk whereas RMS is a tangible asset. The proximity of Lake Roe to Rebecca is fantastic. This end of the shear zone south of giants to the north is a great spot for the long term. I am still wrapping my head around it all but on some reflection I believe the uncertainty that developed about Lake Roe and the current conditions make this an opportunity because we now have choices as BRB shareholders. The opportunity cost of holding BRB as an explorer needing more exploration is not palatable to me at present. The upside of the gold field at Lake Roe is far better in the hands of a cashed up cash cow in a rising gold bull IMO.

    As a final note I am disappointed at how BRB has transpired and not all the fault of the Board or Tom. The best fit strategy was adopted (with bias) at the time and the signals to change course (again) were not noticed (bias again?). This has the potential to be a Tier1 deposit but management failed under the circumstances that worked against them. I see no point in being cynical but wrong choices (easy in hindsight) were made and this is a get out of jail free card in some respects. Potential is not always doable and in this case I am afraid falling far short was the outcome. Over the fullness of time we will look back at the incredible deal RMS got and I only hope shareholders also do well. Look at this as opportunity not a loss.

    This is my current views as I am dealing with only current information in the current conditions. If any of you have a crystal ball I am a buyer. I will take certainty over speculation on this one after all this time. Not happy Jan, but looking at my cards now and seeking the best possible outcome. I believe that is the pragmatic approach of best fit now.

    DYOR and best wishes from CW
 
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