I believe there is potential for NST to make a higher scrip TO offer for GOR as it would allow them to control GOR's 18% holding in DEG and prevent it from falling into a potential competitor's hands. Prior to a TO NST would need to negotiate for Goldfields to acquire GOR's 50% of Gruyere for say $2.8bn cash (Goldfields previous offer was $2.5bn).
This strategy would potentially be a win-win for all parties: - GOR shareholders would receive around $3.25 paid in NST scrip (previous rejected offer $3.05 cash) which I believe would be a reasonable price and also provide shareholders with the additional potential benefit of deferring CGT. - NST would end up controlling the strategic DEG holding at the existing offer price. The Goldfields payment could be used by NST to pay down debt, redeem gold hedges and or buy back stock. - Goldfields able to acquire the balance of Gruyere ($300m above original offer).
High volume today 19m shares so will be interesting to watch over the next couple of weeks prior to the DEG vote.
GOR Price at posting:
$2.79 Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
A personalised tool to help users track selected stocks. Delivering real-time notifications on price updates, announcements, and performance stats on each to help make informed investment decisions.
(20min delay)