I have bought and sold VRL for over 30 years. It has been a...

I have bought and sold VRL for over 30 years. It has been a fabulous trading stock and very kind to many, including myself. 70c to $7 was my best entry/exit trade. The stock has been a listed private business plaything for management for decades. For those not emotionally attached to it, one could count on the boys getting too excited in good times and paying the price in bad day.

At the last CR of $1.65, coinciding with asset sales and debt reduction, there was no way one could not throw the kitchen sink at this since it was obvious the Kirby's and Burke were doing some housekeeping to prepare to get out.

I think based on the current business challenges, a TO (including premium) would been in the $4.20 - $4.50 mark. That is full price for potential and building in synergies for a buyer already in the entertainment space. For private equity, I can't see much over $4 based on cash flow.

I think buying now is opportunistic, but that is the skill in PE.

All things considered I am less optimistic of the rebound in trading this time, than at any other of the 3 or 4 times I previously loaded up on the stock (and thereafter sold out). So I will accept the current play as my final foray in the business. I do not expect to take a stake in the TO entity, if offered, as I am mindful of lower discretionary spending in weaker future economic times. I will be cashing up, as the days of easy money are becoming limited, in my view.

I don't see markets as being kind in 2021 and wherever I can am shrinking my involvement in market holding no banks and taking a significant position in physical precious metals, and listed precious metals producers. This strategy is a long way away from the business of VRL, I am happy for that.

I hope a major US player will join the auction and bring the price closer to $4.50, but not holding my breath. The low A$ makes us cheap to an overseas entertainment business, but do they really need to buy a little Aussie company at full price? Probably not.

GLTASH