VRL (ASX) Ann: Receipt of Indicative Proposal

Originally posted by Jack1960: ↑

I am not a lawyer, simply a business student who studied Company Law in the 1970s and thereafter only as needed. My professional experience lies principally in business and tax.

I meant nothing in particular referencing "old" law than simply that. It is old law, now superseded. Precedents naturally endure to the extent that they relate to the application of current law.

l will be as happy as anyone to see my significant stake in VRL increase in value. Although today provided a further and unexpected opportunity to release more shares acquired below 80c into the market at well above that price.

I do believe it to be extremely optimistic to assume that individual consumer behaviour will be unaffected by the impact of Covid-19 and the newly learned behaviour that any person standing or sitting next to you may be a carrier. At least for the next 12 months or so before a vaccine is successfully produced.

At best young people may feel confident of their immune systems but most would be somewhat cautious before sitting in a confined space with a large number of people present.

Large scale statistics issued by PBOC accurate or otherwise l find to be not on point. I think you will find Ardent and VRL will be the complete opposite of the start you cited. Not a single dollar will be spent on capital projects unless considered necessary. You see in Australia, capital is in short supply. It appears to be limitless in China.

l am aware that entertainment venues were opened in China only to be later closed. I expect this experience will be repeated many times around the works before this epidemic is considered over.

As for the naming of the course of the virus, China is doing its best to control the narrative. They are very experienced at that. I really don't care what it is called. My concern lies with the outright deception with which its transmission was concealed. Amidst the Wuhan lockdown, China freely permitted its residents to jump on plane and infect three rest of the world under the cover that any objection was racist.

The CCP know exactly how easily the western world can be befuddled in naval gazing idealistic apologetics. The left has clearly conquered any semblance of free speech long ago and were left many borders open, trusting a global power to play by global rules.

The future will now determine how much that trust will cost the planet economically and in lots of life.

Sorry to drift off the topic micro, your clearly defined points deserve the utmost respect and I credit your diligence with citations.

Our main point of difference is that l simply expect a very different behavioural response (no citation available) to group activities, that will linger for many many months. This will compromise VRL's financial position and naturally most certainly remove any long gone takeover premium which may have previously been on offer.

I expect a deeply discounted capital raising if cheap loan funds from the cash strapped QLD government are not forthcoming. Make no mistake the cash burn at VRL will be horrific over the next 6 months. If this happens l aim to take up whatever is offered by cashing up well in advance. If l am to early, so be it. A month early is better than a day too late.

VRL may be just one of 15 or so reasonable businesses that have been dealt an unexpected cruel blow by the Wuhan virus (wet market or lab strain) that will need funding. It is the way these financial cycles play out time after time, irrespective of their trigger.

This l Will claim deep experience with, after over 45 years of investing experience and much skin lost to Mr Market in learning lessons.

l am not fit to clean the shoes of Buffet or Kerr Nielson but when they see fit to remain cashed up, l would be foolish to ignore their long demonstrated prowess.

So l will sell into rallies and try to build a small cash kitty.

Anyone following me will know this has been my concurrent position since late 2019 along with yellow shiny metals of the real and listed variety.

GLTASH

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Building cash kitty is smart as this lets you accumulate assets on the cheap when others are selling. Cudos!

I have a view that by delaying the reopening from a lockdown (which will happen before 11 May and start around 18th April according to my model), people's desire to spend on travel, entertainment and similar " forbidden fruit' will be like a slingshot being let go. Anticipating this slingshot, I added another 10,000 VRL at market.

No.	Vol.	Price($)
1	50000	2.0¢

No.

Vol.

Price($)

50000

2.0¢

Price($)	Vol.	No.
2.2¢	234996	1

Price($)

Vol.

No.

2.2¢

234996

No.	Vol.	Price($)
1	50000	0.020
2	46454	0.019
2	766666	0.018
1	277502	0.017
1	498888	0.016

No.

Vol.

Price($)

50000

0.020

46454

0.019

766666

0.018

277502

0.017

498888

0.016

Price($)	Vol.	No.
0.022	234996	1
0.025	1002030	2
0.026	290000	2
0.027	222222	1
0.028	276629	3

Price($)

Vol.

No.

0.022

234996

0.025

1002030

0.026

290000

0.027

222222

0.028

276629

(20min delay)
Last 2.3¢		Change 0.000(0.00%)		Mkt cap ! $6.426M

Open	High	Low	Value	Volume
2.2¢	2.3¢	1.9¢	$113.2K	5.450M

Ann: Receipt of Indicative Proposal, page-45

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