SORRY LONG POSTThere is one way to persuade short term thinkers...

SORRY LONG POST
There is one way to persuade short term thinkers - GREED. Short term the market is ruled by fear and greed. Fear drives the downdraft and greed the updraft. It isn't anything but clever timing that this offer pops up whilst we are facing the fear of a recession and directly rising interest rates. I am a nervous market investor - I should not be because all the people telling me what is happening have been wrong many times. In fact a stopped clock is more correct than these so called experts. No-one challenged the RBA about predicting low interest rates to 2024. In fact many were out there preaching their own gospel supporting that view - the same individuals are now preaching the reasons for much higher interest rates. Personably, I think you get equally good advice from a crystal ball.

I have long thought that many ASX listed local companies fail to market their share and its price as a brand to the audience. The terrible thing is that those who are clever actually do market their share. So After Pay marketed their stock to the audience - probably the best marketing I have ever seen. They tapped into the process of growth and getting multiples of revenue and growth. That was fired by Greed. Friends were telling me I was stupid as APT was a winner - it was ( well last I looked it has never turned a profit and with rising interest rates may never do so) but you had to trust that the drivers would sell before the premium price reversed. In my opinion they captured the best price possible and good luck to them.

TGR have always - in my opinion , failed to market the share. Yes they produce great presentations, they market Salmon especially well but they never sell the vision of the future - they are conservative - we like that but actually they do all of us a disservice. They need a balance of promotion without over promise. They after all raise capital against a share price - just look at what BWX are telling their shareholders today to see how value destruction can occur and how quickly. Entire board renewal ... - they lose their jobs we lose our money - not an equal response I would suggest. I think the Australian market is obsessed with franking credits and high pay-out ratios. It doesn't mind dilution by way of CR's - we have been educated by banks to accept this process and never evaluate the impact of dilution. So dividend yields are important unless you communicate the future very well. I don't think they have done the latter part at all. I have a huge respect for the MD Mark Ryan but the rest of the board don't impress me with marketing expertise. They are very much a conservative bunch - my opinion. Accountants , economists and aero engineering and an ex auditor. Not a retailer or marketing expert amongst them. I think the MD is great but you judge the rest.

I have always been interested in those on this forum that can unpack the Salmon market worldwide and can give insight into biological issues. Risks like feed pricing etc. I cannot say that TGR has given me as much insight into the future as these posters have. They talk a bit of it but they don't explain why they take certain positions. For example if you take the share price a month before they got into prawns the share price was $5.18 and in June 2022 it was $3.55. In fact a 3 year chart shows that the all share index was up 3% and we were down 27% before the offer. On that basis just to stay level with the market we would need a price 3% better than $5.18 or a price of around $5.40. However none of that compensates for change of control or the fact that the business has successfully integrated the prawns into the overall business. No-one comes from Canada and worldwide operations without thinking they have to get good value to expand into another location. Why expand into Tasmania unless it provides a very good long term return. We are not getting a gift with purchase they are.

Read their website announcement it plays to our fears - rising interest rates - premium price. Working with board - friendly.

https://www.cookeseafood.com/2022/06/27/cooke-places-premium-proposal-to-acquire-tassal-by-scheme-of-arrangement/