Doesn't seem any reason - beyond anchor bias- as to why the bid should be at $5.20 or all time highs? That's just a number. Not sure if management would see that as their fair value for the business today.
Reality is they see there is a lot of value in prawns, which are expected to be 50% of operating profit by 2030. They see a lot of value in new industries like seaweed, the third vertical starting up now.
Conservatively Tassal is expected to generate a 14% CAGR on FCF growth until 2030. Management doesn't believe that's worth a 20x multiple on FCF and 14x multiple on earnings today. And to be frank, I agree. There are slower growers out there trading on higher multiples, just look around.
Unfortunately, Australians don't value primary businesses. They see them as risky and cyclical, and so generally they fail in the listed markets or get taken over by private equity. So often the question is, would business X do better in private hands where they can have a longer term focus? Reality is, often they would do better off the ASX boards.
It will be interesting to see if the new ASX agribusiness changes anything. I have my doubts, because super funds aren't really investing much in the markets or privately. That to me would be the expected home for a lot of this. Instead, they're sold to Canadian pension funds, large companies, etc. This is not just an issue for aquaculture, but a lot of long duration assets.
TGR Price at posting:
$4.61 Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held