And this one Bill was my final Clarification see date
Date:27/10/21
Time:03:25:47
Post #:57096461
For all the Newbis that may have just joined us or are not quite up to speed as yet
Speculation around this forum is as to whether Sarepta have just raised $500mil to add to their treasure chest of $1.6bil in cash, to possibly partner up with ANP for a significant amount
Now those that have been here a while have read my own thoughts on a deal and an eventual Sp of $19.00 ++ in possibly the next 6 years if you want to hang around that long and the ducks line up for ANP
Wow some of you may say this guy is a nutter pie in the sky
RAMPER
Disallowed SALESMAN LOL
So lets just take a look where I am coming from, below you will see an extract taken from our August 2020 presentation from our own board
as in Value creation Potential of Atl1102 for DMD
Value Creation Potential of ATL1102 for DMD
• Exondys 51 – first FDA approved treatment for DMD (2016)
• Exondys 51 is only useful in 13% of boys with the exon 51 mutation. Vyondys 53, approved in 2019 for approx. 8% boys with exon 53 mutation.
• Both received accelerated approval based on the surrogate endpoint of dystrophin increase in skeletal muscle observed in some treated patients • Sarepta market capitalisation has grown from ~US$60m (July 2012) to $3 billion on FDA approval of Exondys 51- today ~US$12 billion
• Inflammation (the target of ATL1102 in DMD) contributes to disease progression in all DMD patients
• Cost per patient of Exondys 51 is US$300K/year
• 1st quarter 2020 total net revenue for Sarepta – US$100 million
• Roche recently acquired EU rights from Sarepta for early stage gene therapy for DMD for US$1.15 billion upfront with US$1.7 billion in milestones plus royalties on sales
Now the two points I want you to take on board are in the title
Value Creation Potential of ATL1102 for DMD
and the second
The value of the recent deal with Roche again from the presentation
Roche recently acquired EU rights from Sarepta for early stage gene therapy for DMD for US$1.15 billion upfront with US$1.7 billion in milestones plus royalties on sales
YES
You are reading this correct,
Sarepta received US$1.5bil up front payment which consisted of US$750,000,000 in cash and US$400,000,000 in Equity
Now this figure was for a deal for EARLY STAGE GENE THERAPY for the rights to the EU this was for a Ph2 trial with no Data as the trial was incomplete when the deal took place so it was basically a blind deal, And most on this forum now are aware of the end result basically the trial fell on its face HMM
This Led to a drop in Sareptas MC basically over night going from $15bil down to a little over $7bil YES $7 – 8bil loss overnight more or less
So why all the hype and fuss with ANP
Well ANP have at this stage a successful phase 2 trial with outstanding results in both, physical and scientific data, in fact one of the leading Professors in the field of Dmd has said, these are results that have never, ever been seen before in these boys with this disease, with the reduction in fact fraction and basically stopped further muscle degeneration over the 6 month period, something you would never expect to have seen as you could almost guarantee increased fat and decreased muscle mass over the same period without treatment.
Since this time we have backed up 1102 with further scientific data, which can and will be followed through in other indications, of which patents have now been registered for.
So looking at all the above value creation potential, I am expecting Yes Expecting no less, I don't really care how the figures stack up so long as the end return is of similar value
So yes we are sat at 31.5c today but you add a partnership to the tune of Roches deal which equated to US $2.85Billion inc milestones + ROYALTIES
You tell me what we should be worth
BUT NO WAIT there is more
This would be for only 50% of the global rights for 1102 in boys with DMD
So therefore if a deal is done for around that figure then one would have to take into account of our other Global 50% would carry initially a similar value equating to a further valuation of an extra $2.85Bil
So if the partnership can be done to the same magnitude, and I see no reason why it shouldn't, we could be looking at adding an initial further $5.7bil in value in a parabolic way
Then you look at a successful PH2 trial in RRMS awaiting funding to crossover into another unmet field in SPMS
Then look at a successful PH2 trial in Acromegaly awaiting funding to advance
Then up and coming further indications, that we have existing patents on, and the new indications patents applied for.
You may begin to understand the excitement building here especially with Sareptas recent raising of $500mil @ market, just trying to join the dots and not the only one
So if you have just jumped onboard here, as a day trader or looking short term, if the above pans out, this could well be your lucky day, think long and hard before you pull the trigger on those short term shares you have just acquired.
Am I a Disallowed SALESMAN
just ask yourself
Where did my information come from
Couple of side notes whilst I am here @mephistophles
I had no problem with you divulging your holdings here, in-fact I admire you as a single mum trying to do what you are doing, and also the Rangies and lambos, just a bit of fun
We are excited of course we are, are we not allowed to be without being classed as egotistical, That is the problem across and throughout Australia at this moment in time the
FUN POLICE ARE EVERYWHERE
some folks should lighten up and enjoy
Second side note
@sankaido
I saw your reply to my post but treated it with the same regard as the readers on this forum did
Zero cred please do not engage me again
Will finish by saying
GL to all both Lts and those that have just arrived
fingers crossed
See how we go
NOW IF YOU TAKE NOTE BILL
i quoted or projected a time of 6 years to this point
Unfortunately for shareholder the board were completly incompetant in the handling of our journey to market VIA the EMA they put us back by at least 3yrs could well be longer depending on how the FDA see things
And with the way this present day board are predicting things with downgrading expectations with regards to any type of deal moving forwards i now have my doubts
not that we we wont make money i just question will they be able to steer us to true value that i believe as you can see that we could in all the realms of possiblity be achieved
at this moment in time i am just not seeing it sorry
hope you enjoy the read Bill
Not really up for questioning on any of the above here Bill in this environment,
but anyone reading that are members in both areas happy to take up the conversation in a respecfull environment where a remarkable amount have people have now flocked to so much so that our tech is having trouble keeping up with things
The only reason for posting Bill is because you asked many thanks
Just on a side note for those wondering why you are not being given access to our group
the simple reason will possibly be that your HC nic has no history
with out a researchable history you will not be allowed in
Im sorry about this for the genuine that want to join but thats is the way it has to be
And i will not engage further on the subject
thank you all
And on a side note after writing those 3 posts tell me where did i ever repeat
$18 - $19 in 6 years time
lol
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