Kin/Delphi have 10.57% I think, so both the key thresholds ......

Kin/Delphi have 10.57% I think, so both the key thresholds ... 90% and 95% require Kin/Delphi.

Kin/Delphi want a milling solution for Cardinia ore. All the announcements from Kin and DCN recently point to Mt. Morgans re-starting with some outside ore. If the second shoe drops ... which is an announcement that Cardinia ore will be mined and processed at the Mt. Morgans plant ... I would expect Delphi/Kin would accept the TO.

Then there are two pathways; GMD get another 4% to cross the 95% threshold. In that case the remaining shares will be compulsorily acquired for GMD shares. That is the best option for GMD, because no cash outlay.

Alternatively, once they are over 90%, which Kin/Delphi can give them, within 6 months they can make a compulsory cash acquisition of the remaining shares, provided some conditions are met. My guess is that cash offer would have to be around the equivalent of the final TO offer, but if DCN is re-starting production it is possible it would be valued higher. I have no special knowledge just thinking aloud.

My guess is Cardinia ore will be mined by GMD mining services, and transported by GMD to Mt. Morgan's. I can't see Kin raising funds to start mining.

I think it is vanishingly unlikely GMD would have made this offer without expecting Delphi will agree. I think the outcome will be Kin will become a producer on commercial terms with GMD/DCN, and GMD will have effectively consolidated Leonora. IMHO Red 5 is not important because RED 5 isn't looking for outside ore and isn't looking for processing So GMD will control all the available processing around Leonora. It will be in a strong position to take control of all the available ore around Leonora, because tenement holders will have only one processing choice, unless they have really high grade ore which could be trucked further.

Either way I expect GMD have this TO in the bag now.

I bought some DCN as a bet that GMD would have to come back. Not sure what I will ... didn't want GMD shares, but GMD will be a much better bet once it owns the Mt. Morgan's mill and DCN resources, especially if the Mill is operating, which means they will expand the tailings and have proved up a water supply.