I don't think we're missing anything. The same risks already...

I don't think we're missing anything. The same risks already outlined remain:

1. forex,
2. a termination condition,
3. full acceptance, and
4. the time value of money

I don't think the bidder is going to reach 90% so I think full acceptance is the biggest of these risks. Rather than walking away though, I think they will be prepared to sweeten a little. In any case, if they do reach 90% we make around 33%. If they walkaway, or a termination condition eventuates, we'll likely get nothing, just like everyone else who hasn't already sold.

In other words, the logical thing, as I see it, for investors to do is:

1. If they think the deal will fall through -> sell up before it falls through
2. If they think the deal will succeed -> buy more and profit from the arbitrage on offer

At present the market is telling us that it's not a surety that the deal is going to succeed, most probably due to risk 2 or 3. It's unlikely to be telling us that AUDUSD is going to recover to around 0.85 within the offer period and the time value of money will almost certainly remain negligible within the offer period, although some may say it's wiser to deploy funds into other opportunities for a lower risk return.