Great post,
@cyprus. Hope you become a regular contributor.
I am also looking forward to the half-yearly in November, if not an update before then, so that we can fine tune our analysis.
However, there is a lot we can work out from what has already been revealed. For example, knowing that ARR ended FY21 at $27.2M (including IWS - which is a bit cheeky IMO given it didn't complete until 18th May), that helps us develop a FY22 revenue figure. If we initially assume zero growth and take off $0.7M that IWS did not contribute to revenue due to the later completion, then FY22 revenue would be $26.5M (27.2 - 0.7).
However, from the AGM update on 22 July, PYG gave guidance for FY22 ARR of $36M +/- $1M. If we assume this ARR growth occurs evenly throughout FY22, then we can reasonably add half the ARR increase. That brings FY22 revenue to around $30.9M ($26.5 + $4.4M). I actually think it will be higher than this, as PYG has had a good history of upgrades recently.
PYG has recently mentioned "margin expansion", "scale, cross-selling & leverage", "HCM software is high margin" etc, so we can also assume that operating expenses will increase a lot less than revenue. I estimate around $22M after adding in IWS costs of around $4M and then 20% growth on FY21 expenses. If true that would give an EBITDA of $8.9M. Once again, I think it will be higher than this.
If this happens as I expect, the market should start to sit up and take notice.
