I'm interested to hear the thoughts on others with regards to the analyst forecasts that have been published on this stock. All of them are pretty bullish and just for full disclosure I am pretty bullish as well. I've summarised the important bits below:
Lodge Partners - 3/6/2020 - 12 month target $1.82, forecast revenue in 2022 $24.1m for $5.44 EBITDA
SparkPlus - January 2021 - suggest a market cap of $126m, forecast $19.8m revenue and $3m EBITDA.
Actual at 21/10/2021 - market cap is $60m, all revenue targets smashed on way to $37.7m, EBITDA to be seen but expect they will exceed targets.
All 3 analysts must know what they're doing and the fact that there is reasonable closeness between them suggest they're all singing from the same song book. What has happened between the release of this analysis and today that would cause the SP to lag - the only thing I can think of is the most recent acquisition. If it was earning accretive it should be a positive for the SP. The negatives are that perhaps the market is waiting to see how they manage and extract value from the group companies (sum of the parts more than the whole) and the number of new shares issued - not an issue if accretive but destroys momentum if people sell out for stag profit off the raise.
If the EBITDA number is within a bulls roar of the forecasts I tend to think fair value could be in the 80c range.
