@Cyberguy
Subject to no operational issues I think RMS will exceed $100 million easily by June 30 for the following reasons:
1) I suspect production of 58,671 ounces was higher than sales this quarter and that RMS has increased its inventory for the quarter. Cash increased by around 13.5m and capex was 6.5m so total cash generated was 20 million. If you divide this by 58,671 this means the margin per ounce was only $341. RMS stated they expected ASIC to be $1182 this quarter - given they exceeded production forecasts I would think ASIC to more than likely be lower. If you assume and average sale price of $1700 (conservative given they have hedging @1830) then the margin should in be in the range of $500 to $550 - which would mean they only sold around 40,000 ounces - this does seem a bit low compared to production but I do think sales were much lower than ounces produced. I would have liked the company to have disclosed sales so we can get a better take on the cash position.
2) ASIC is expected to drop to $1021 in the fourth quarter and production to exceed 60,000 ounces (see attachment) - if gold stays around $1721 then that would mean around $42 million (60,000 x $700) in cash flow less 8.5 million in Capex - so it's not out of the question that RMS could pull in over $30 million in the 4th quarter. On top of that sales of excess inventory from the 3rd quarter could increase that figure.
View attachment 1049965
The $30 million on top of the $75 million should get RMS to $105 million on a conservative basis.
Looking forward to reserve upgrades - worth noting that the Shannon open pit has a reserve of close to 5g/t which is almost 4 times higher than the current Milky Way pit being mined - so next year should see higher production from Mt Magnet and healthy margins given the grade of Shannon.
Not sure why some people on other threads are bagging out Mt Magnet - RMS has discovered some very tidy high grade mines - in particular Shannon and Water Tank. When you think that RMS paid $40 million for Mt Magnet back in 2010/11 its been a very good investment.
Keen to see how Eridanus and Lone Pine shape up going forward - given Mt Magnet has a good track record at deeper levels there should be plenty to look forward to.
By the sounds of it Edna May has the potential to really extend mine life - does anyone know how big the tenament at Edna May is and if there are other prospective drilling sites in the tenament and surrounding area - the mill can process 2.6 million tonnes - with the upgrade other feed sources may not be needed but it would be good to know what other prospects are in the area given RMS is hopefully going to have plenty of cash to burn going forward to acquire other projects.
GLTA/IMHO
PS As per last weeks presentation DCN has an 8 year mine life - is still ramping up production and is forecasting 180koz to 210koz for FY 2019 - RMS may produce over 220 koz - commissioning is not complete they're still burning cash - so at this stage RMS is a much better buy in my view.
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