@V_Hentire bond market is a misdirect with US gov buying most of...

@V_H

entire bond market is a misdirect with US gov buying most of its own issue. Some pros know it but machines and allocators may not change behaviour

currently US 10yr noms vs TIPS spread is 2.36%. But actual US annualised inflation running +4%

that big misdirect is because US is buying more noms than tips - boxes in implied inflation rate and so reduces buying of negative real rate investments like PMs

but this too shall pass

suggest taking a look at this. imo stagflation doesnt price into gold directly because initially its disbelieved

its gradual build of +infl - gdp shocks vs expectation that cause big trigger moves - hence a series of N shaped consolidation whipsaws

but technically I think we are extremely close. And its been a very long consol if gold is staying in a bull trend - which should mean fairly sharp upside