The SLR offer for SBM has cast a pall over the tone of this RED blog - the pessimism is astounding in such a bullish environment for gold and RED.
SLR stripped of its cash (and accumulated tax losses) has a market cap not much higher than RED - what's that saying ??
It says that SLR's current assets are not impressive and don't offer upside the market expects - SLR has been a gold producer since 2007 and never has and never will pay a dividend so whats going to justify holding, what going to drive the SP ???
Mt. Monger assets are tired and high cost, and SLR's Canadian adventure has not turned out well, which leaves the Doray asset (a very successful takeover) as the driver .... hmm NOT enough.
SBM principle asset is very very old, and must come with very high risk - many SLR SH's on the HC blog are dismayed, ditto GMD SH's.
The market is not impressed either as the SP is down over 20% in a month, as most gold's are even the sainted CMM.
RMS has seen a SP bounce with its TO of BRB which has been in the too hard basket too long for "loyal SH's", but one can not say the TO is transformational except as an exit strategy for BRB SH's. A RED+RMS merger speculation has been around for some time, and this current merger won't put that rumour to bed till some other entity declares the hunt for RED in October is definitely on.
Meanwhile RED SP is suffering the May-June malaise while it keeps consolidating its ramp-up with monthly announcements of record production. The whole market is pessimistic and uncertain - with or without a FED pivot, it remains overvalued (with the exception of gold).
"Build it and they will come" didn't happen for DCN - it had a fatal flaw - its own ore sources were totally inadequate to keep the show on the road.
RED on the other hand has extraordinary long life endowment to fully justify current and higher production targets PLUS the capacity to expand further to accomodate ore bodies needing a long life milling solution !!
RED SH should take heart from the desperation of SLR management to get bigger no matter the cost ... if SLR succeed in acquiring SBM, these assets will take a lot of time, money and management to turn around .... kiss goodbye dividends for ever and when will the market reward this reckless adventurism ?
So, whats GMD going to do with its overblown assets ?? They were hoping SBM would be their get out of jail avenue .... take SBM money and run.
The emergence of the latest saga in the the Leonora consolidation saga should give great heart to RED SH's - KOTH is the diamond in all this rough.
KOTH is a very clean asset - long life, good grade ore with an outstanding well positioned plant (close to gas pipeline, airport, regional highway, other ore bodies etc etc) and hence is going to be a standalone success for decades - M&A will only magnify that.
RED SH should sit calmly or buy more in this calm before the SP storm surge that coming in the 23/24 FY - RED's numbers will do the talking.
Rest assured, M&A involving KOTH wont come cheaply and the BOD realises it's holding a hand full of hard own aces, and will only negotiate with genuine class actors.
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No. | Vol. | Price($) |
---|---|---|
47 | 1232084 | 35.0¢ |
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Price($) | Vol. | No. |
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35.5¢ | 509324 | 8 |
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23 | 792861 | 0.345 |
25 | 2017776 | 0.340 |
23 | 753669 | 0.335 |
34 | 1276973 | 0.330 |
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
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0.355 | 360752 | 5 |
0.360 | 583303 | 9 |
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