[ATTACH] Trying with my Excel-crystal ball to figure out how the...

Trying with my Excel-crystal ball to figure out how the quarterlies could look like. Some factors to consider:

* tailings dam lift to impact at least AISC for April (assumed same ballpark as March)
* given they need to strip future areas to be mined in parallel, I doubt we will see AISC of ~900A$ at any point in the near future -> assuming AISC of 1100 - 1150A$, sticking to the plan laid out for half year
* overall plant recovery in March was quite weak: 86,7% (own, calculated number) vs. 92-93% prediction, strong need to fix this! I have used 89% recovery rate for the months April to June trying to be not over-optimistic but as well not too cautious (mix of transitional ore from Galaxy and M4 vs. oxide ore from M1 and M2).
* Grade predicted in the forecast by BLK was 1,6-1,7g/t. Looking at what they claimed to achieve regarding their stockpile (127t @1,5g/t on April 9^th -> 167t @1,7g/t on April 16^th) I remained cautious and assumed 1,55g/t (which could be claimed 1,6g/t and anyhow would be the best quarterly achieved).

Overall the calculation predicts that they would be in a position to meet their half year guidance, although not all single parameters would be met by 100%.

More importantly the calculation would suggest that they could generate about 12mA$ of profit which would put them in a position to be “debt-free”.

This calculation is kind of a best-guess linear interpolation based on the facts I have researched myself.

My personal sentiment is still a bit more cautious, as the switch from monthly reporting back to quarterly occurred a bit too fast for me. At that point in time I suspected that the April figures wouldn’t have looked as positive as the months before and there was some hope from management to recover in May/June.
Maybe I was not alone with my sentiment and this is one of the reasons why the share price is where it is. BLK really need to deliver on the forecasted half year results if they want to regain confidence.
If they do this could be a good risk/reward opportunity, if there are more excuses (low recovery due to transitional ore, wall collapse, tailings dam cost, etc.) this will be again classified as over-promising and under-delivering with the SP moving laterally, although company financials may be on a good way.