RPM 0.00% 6.7¢ rpm automotive group limited

Ann: Record quarterly performance and poised for strong growth, page-9

  1. 1,799 Posts.
    lightbulb Created with Sketch. 1907
    That correct.

    The irony is RPM's trading multiple prior to this announcement was LOWER than what they've been buying businesses for! Traralgon was done on a 3.8x multiple.

    In their last investor presentation they said their target multiple for future acquisitions was 3x to 5x. That provides a rough lower bound multiple of what the GROUP should be valued at.

    Clearly you'd want a higher trading multiple than a purchase multiple or you're destroying shareholder value. For this size business, you're probably looking a multiple of 6x to 8x EV/EBITDA which is still scary low. That's probably justified for now given the size and lack of track record but I'll show you why there's still a large opportunity here.

    Given we know they're acquisitive, I can apply the cash holdings to a theoretical acquisition. If I use say $5m of my cash balance leaving a ~$2m buffer for working capital, I can buy $1.25m in EBITDA at a 4x multiple. This only assumes I use cash. If I use debt, I can buy more profit but let's keep this simple.

    I also believe the company is low balling their forecast so they can show a 'beat' at the end of the year. I'm ok with that but I think they will comfortably do $5m to $5.5m in EBITDA for the year.

    So if I use $5m EBITDA and I buy another $1.25m in EBITDA with my cash, my run rate EBITDA is $6.25m.

    Using the mid point of my 6x to 8x multiple on what I think the Group should be valued at gives me an EV of $43.8m (i.e. 6.25 * 7). If I add back cash of say $2m then my market cap is $45.8m, which translates to a share price of ~40c using 115.2m shares on issue. This excludes any growth or synergies!

    With the very tight share register it's not hard seeing that this can bag from here. GLTAH
 
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