FreeflyerIn past documents I have read and studied, I can...

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Few Pennies

880 Posts.

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14/09/21

10:18

Post #: 56042229
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Originally posted by FreeflyerNZ: ↑

Fully agree with you there, a lot of my portfolio is resource stocks including explorers who will need capital. And years away from being cash flow positive so i am entirely comfortable with that.

What I don't understand is how the ramp up of sales is going to positively effect Tru.

now that there are sales coming through. It should give me more clarity on their business model. Unfortunately it doesn't.

What are they hoping to achieve from further clinical trials? There is no targets I'm aware of they are trying to meet. Just constant trials for years. Now the device is up there with the very best. What percentages are they looking to increase? What number are they striving for? Noone knows.

Whats even more confusing is the lack of detail around the cost of the products. How many sales are needed before it can cover administration costs and supplier/wholesaler costs. 5 million a year isn't cheap.

it's all very well to say sales increased 36% but how many units were sold? Are we selling a million at a dollar each. Or did we only sell 5 at say 200,000 each. Obviously I'm exaggerating. But I see it as pivotal in understanding the potential upside with possibilities to work out number of tests each hospital might be doing a year etc and enable a bigger picture.

judging by the latest annual report there is nothing to suggest how big the upside may be or if the business will be profitable at all.

sales need to increase more than 400%+ percent plus to get into a stage where they are making money. But that's with no supplier costs increase so if this increases with sales how does Tru make money? What does our device cost in comparison to the normal pap test?

they are doing all the right things in regards to their target market and manufacturing in China so I'm happy with the progress they are making in other areas.

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Freeflyer
In past documents I have read and studied, I can remember them stating the numbers of SUS sold, such as below

I have in the past done the math and worked out its probably between US $6 and US$8 per sensor I have also worked out from research that I have done that the Pap smear test in western countries costs governments somewhere between $300 and $400 each and possibly more. (although its likely costs less to do in low income countries, however the quality and accuracy may also be not at good in those areas as well)
We can see from Truscreens figures that the Margin is about 41% ( as I have discussed in past posts) so the cost price must be around $2.87. (or 41% of $7 )
Below Table ; forcasts from Pitt Street, its interesting to note that Truscreen did slightly better with a (-$2,189,331) actual cash flow loss in 2021 then the forecast 2021F loss of (-$2.6m )

as always
DYOR
kind regards
fp

Last edited by Few Pennies: 14/09/21

TRU Price at posting: 5.6¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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