RED 0.00% 34.5¢ red 5 limited

The report is for FY 22, and is outstanding from every point of...

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  1. 2,443 Posts.
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    The report is for FY 22, and is outstanding from every point of view, for the reasons summed up in the reports summary.
    The next quarterly will be more important for RED's market standing.
    The current SP is obviously disappointing and very disheartening for many new and long term SH's. But there's a light among all the gloom. While relative sickness never makes an individual's suffering less, the contraction of RED's mid tier peers MC, should be borne in mind for proper comparison.

    SLR MC A$1.039bn (with A$300m cash and A$400 tax losses) ... currently has share buy back, to stop suffering a RMS SP catastrophe.
    CMM MC A$1.046bn (this stock was heavily rerated up after full commissioning to MC >A$1.5bn) and produces less than half SLR and has much less cash reserves, and will produce less than half KOTH in 12 months ... so what its MC nadir will be is not yet known.

    RMS MC A$573m ... despite 250k oz p.a. ....its massive SP drop secondary to selloff after being dropped from gold indexes.
    Currently theres a lot of M&A speculation involving RMS, SBM MC A$625m, GMD MCA$325m (about to acquire DCN MC A$100m).

    RED has been mentioned as a likely M&A target with no specific targets or would be acquirers. Its transparent lack of problems, and its new big efficient plant, with upside potential, and very long LOM, makes RED a very desirable target. RED won't M&A with a bad, sad partner.

    RED's MC A$519.6m has fallen, but on relatively low volume. This could change for better or worse depending on the next quarterly report.
    A degree of rerating is already in the SP, but continued improvement in output and grade processed, and the declaration of full commissioning, and control of ASIC (less than 15% increase) will buttress the SP and RED's appeal to investors and M&A candidates ... IMHO.
    20c should be very strong support ... time will tell ... these markets are very unstable, and a big crash is possible.

    Just looking at the IOUSA$ POG is disturbing, as key supports have been breached, & key supports will come under attack if the FED interest rate bullishness continues to propel the US$ much higher ... multi decade levels, that will crush all NON US$ currencies, including to some degrees the A$. This will cause ballooning debts and current account deficits, and widespread misery, starvation and economic collapse.

    The A$ POG offers hope for efficient producers. The bottom line is the difference between A$ POG and A$ AISC.
    Those companies with efficient mining and milling processes will still make good profits and be in a commanding position for M&A.
    So, fellow RED SH, take heart - selling now makes no sense IMHO. Hold for better days, unless you think gold has no future.
    https://hotcopper.com.au/data/attachments/4702/4702826-620fe1dec6eef176045dd181036ab69d.jpg
    https://hotcopper.com.au/data/attachments/4702/4702850-8297d8f6dd8d65650a3d581edfcf9f19.jpg
    https://hotcopper.com.au/data/attachments/4702/4702872-8aaf11371d23daefa96e196c21d526e6.jpg
    Last edited by MIStragic: 25/09/22
 
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