Edit - sorry about formatting! Was planning to put my analysis...

Edit - sorry about formatting!

Was planning to put my analysis of RED up in case it helps anybody. Here it is - from the 12th April.

Makes me feel a bit greedy. Their FS for KOTH is very interesting.

	Column 1
1	Issues:
2	Lower grade KOTH mine (but very stock standard processing)
3	Siana worth a lot?, valued at nearly nothing and forgotten but sovereign risk, talk of sale (presidential election coming however - Duterte in bed with China, they are making local fishermen angry as a start)
4	Bad timing for crap raise (SP hit)
5	Big mandatory hedging program for 25% of prod while banked (pay out debt if POG high I suspect, downside protection too)
6	Darlot in transition period ATM (SP Hit)
7	Darlot underperforming at present - negative halo (sp hit)
8	Gold price trend -ve halo (sp hit)
9	Darlot Reliant on Great Western underground reserves arising (but this is something they have done in the area already twice at least)
10	Not sure their camp looks great - lol

Optionality: Two processing plants near each other
Can use underground quicker if needed short term for a problem, or use up UG faster if a great discovery (of a new pit) is made in the area as well.
Resource open all over the place

Good aspects:
Management very experienced with KOTH and the greater area.
pg 36 of FS for KOTH, from FY24 to FY29 has a very low AISC, best production FY 24 to 26, this would be the period to sell if AUD POG spikes, and say thanks.

Massive risk factor:
Wall failure as per page 22 of FS, could block high grade UG access for some time. Seems unlikely as it is not being touched til UG is finished, and has been studied carefully, and can be apparently safely mined at a less steep slope.

Crap Raise:
Tax incentive for many to sell existing stock and replace with new issue.
35% retail issue still to come at 16c - likely most going to underwriters
Estimates LOM eps (after tax) from KOTH alone at POG (AUD) 1750 = 1.2 cps, 2000 = 2.5, 2250 3.7 cps, 2500 again 4.9 cps. (Subtract corp overhead, but add in Darlot)

Bought a bunch - not a bet the farm type scenario, as I would hope to get a 5 or Disallowed if successful, but could lose a lot if there was a wall failure - see if more come along, maybe top up a couple of times, hold for FY24 to 26 and bail. Gold could do anything. Bit of an option type play.

Keen to hear if any facts I am relying on are wrong - cheers and happy investing