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Tight Supply/Demand Picture Leaves Analysts, Investors Bullish On Copper
17 December 2010, 12:00 p.m.
By Allen Sykora
Of Kitco News
http://www.kitco.com/

Editor's Note: Prices for many precious and base metals hit record highs in 2010, as economic uncertainty rattled around the globe. What does 2011 hold for gold, silver, platinum, palladium, copper and other metals? Kitco News reporters have prepared a series of stories which examine what is in store for 2011, not only for metals but for currencies, stocks and the overall economy: 2011 Precious Metals Outlook
(Kitco News) - Copper?s supply/demand picture may become so tight that many analysts and institutional investors say it is one of the commodities on which they are the most bullish for 2011.
Copper has already staged an impressive rally from the commodity-wide sell-off that occurred when the global financial crisis hit in 2008. While Western economies were weak, copper demand remained strong in emerging economies such as China, the world?s largest consumer of the metal. Whenever recovery picks up in the West, demand should rise further.
Meanwhile, analysts say, mining companies will not be able to ramp up output fast enough to keep up with demand, leaving a global supply/demand deficit for 2011.
?It?s our top commodity pick for next year,? said Bart Melek, global commodity strategist with BMO Capital Markets.
The same was true for many institutional investors surveyed by Barclays Capital during an investor conference in December. More than 300 participants were asked to rate which commodity or sector will perform best in 2011, and copper got the highest rating with 26%, followed by grains at 23% and crude oil at 19%.
Analysts have been releasing commodity forecasts for 2011 this month, and Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley and Barclays Capital are among those listing copper as one of the markets they expect to fare best.
?We expect to see pretty tight market conditions for copper next year,? Melek said. ?The crux of the story is that we are expecting supply to be outstripped by demand growth.?
BMO projects a 2011 copper deficit of around 380,000 metric tons. Standard Bank analyst Leon Westgate looks for a deficit of 385,000 metric tons, widening to 562,000 in 2012.
?I think the real tightness in the market is going to come in 2012,? Westgate said. ?While I?m bullish next year, I?m super bullish for 2012.?
BNP Paribas analyst Stephen Briggs looks for a supply deficit of 200,000 metric tons this year, widening to 500,000 in 2011.
Analysts often measure tightness by looking at the how many weeks current inventories will last, based on global consumption. For 2011, this is likely to fall to around 2.2 weeks, comparable to the 2006-2008 period, Westgate said. But then in 2012, he looks for a further drop to 0.7 week.
A recent Morgan Stanley report said the stocks-to-consumption ratio fell to 3.4 weeks at the end of the third quarter. This was a ?remarkable? given below-par growth in developed nations, plus risks to emerging-market growth arising from inflation, Morgan Stanley said.
There is a wide range of price forecasts. Morgan Stanley looks for average of $7,900 a metric ton in 2011, up from $7,300 for 2010 although down from current levels. VM Group lists an average of $8,833 but a three-month target of $9,100 and a 12-month target of $8,500. VM Group looks for prices to top $10,000, but with volatility and potential for a correction if Chinese authorities are aggressive reining in money supply.
Citi also expects copper to hit $10,000 in the next to 12 months. Barclays looks for copper average $9,950 in the third quarter alone. Goldman Sachs looks for LME copper to hit $11,000 a ton in 12 months.
Global Recovery Driving Demand While Constraints Limit Supply
Copper demand should be driven by a continuing global economic recovery, Melek said. In particular, an improving auto sector likely will consume more copper, while China will also need more metal to keep building its power and other infrastructure.
Also, there is potential for physically exchange-traded funds in base metals to take still more copper off of the market. ETF Securities launched an ETF on Dec. 10, and J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. and BlackRock Asset Management International are also looking to launch copper ETFs.
Some analysts wonder if base-metals ETFs will become as popular as those in precious metals.
?We have our doubts about the attractiveness of these investment products, but so tight is the copper market likely to become that even modest tonnages risk material being bid away from consumers,? Briggs said.
Meanwhile, a number of factors are limiting the ability of mining companies to hike production.
For starters, there were relatively few mine cutbacks in 2008-09, meaning little in the way of restarts, Briggs said. Where cutbacks did occur, miners have been slow to reverse them, he said.
Ore grades are declining at aging mines, Briggs and Melek said. For instance, in late summer, controlling owner BHP Billiton reported that production at the Chile?s Escondida mine, the largest in the world, will fall as much as 10% by the middle of next year due to lower ore grades.
There have been limited major discoveries and developments in recent years, analysts said. Furthermore, some of the potential new operations are in regions of the world with high geopolitical risk, which makes companies cautious about investment, Melek said.
?The difference in copper, compared to a lot of other commodities, is the supply side really is extraordinarily tight,? said Kevin Norrish, managing director of commodities research. ?The problem for copper is there just aren?t lots of large projects out there in the way that perhaps there were 10 or 15 years ago. It?s becoming very difficult to grow supply.?
Prices above $10,000 could make some projects feasible, whereas maybe they would not be at $7,000 or $8,000, Norrish said. ?But it will take time to get those up and running,? he said.
Analysts with Goldman Sachs, in a research report, said base metals such as copper are even closer to a ?structural bull market? than oil because of supply issues. In the case of crude, declining inventories and rising prices may be followed by OPEC producing from spare capacity. But for many base metals, producers are already at full capacity and existing inventories are the only ?spare,? Goldman said.
In fact, Goldman said, nearly all exchange inventories may be exhausted over the course of 2011, forcing the market into demand rationing.
?We are expecting copper stocks to fall to the lowest that they?ve ever been,? Norrish said.
By Allen Sykora of Kitco News; [email protected]