RFX 0.00% 11.0¢ redflow limited

Ann: Redflow awarded US Dept of Energy funds for 34.4MWh project, page-28

  1. sjl
    1,198 Posts.
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    Maybe?

    Look at Retail Food Group for an example of what can happen while you're patient. Highs of around $7/share in late 2016, a slow decline through 2017, then it fell off a cliff in late 2017. Now trading around 5 cents per share. I got lucky - sold out for a small profit not long before the cliff came (and it was pure luck on my part, not skill).

    Note that I'm not saying that that's what will happen to Redflow. I'm only saying that just because a company hit certain highs in the past, it doesn't mean that it will again in the future. Sausage Software is another good example, or an awful lot of other companies through the dot com boom.

    What it comes down to is that you need to be prepared to constantly revisit your investment theory and ask yourself: does it still apply? Should I continue to hold this company, or should I cut my losses and run? Me... I think the single biggest thing Redflow needs to do now to regain the market's trust, much more than winning contracts, is to show that they can supply those contracts, at a profit. Do that, and I reckon a dollar or more per share is entirely reasonable - especially if the flow of contracts continues. Fail, and it'll continue to languish.

    It doesn't even need to be a big profit. Showing that we can supply batteries for more than the cost of manufacturing, even if only at a margin of (say) 5%, would be a massive boost.

    But simply saying "it hit this mark before, it will do so again" isn't investing. It's wishing. It's a fantasy, with maybe a little more chance of success than buying a lottery ticket. I'm not saying that you're inherently wrong in investing in a small cap startup with the hope of a big return - rather, I'm saying that your statement is... rather problematic in the level of unsupported optimism it displays.
 
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