RFX 0.00% 9.7¢ redflow limited

Ann: Redflow FY2021 Appendix 4E and Financial Report, page-30

  1. 3,447 Posts.
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    @Treed - a present for you. Cut/paste from my notes. I'll look again when 1H results are published. If they've really only made a negative 30% margin on the Anaergia sale, I'll be more interested.
    Good
    1- $Raw Material & Consumerables per $sales ratio reduced by 19% to $2.30 (from $2.84 in FY20 and from $4.27 in FY19).
    2- $454,647 recognised loss already on US$1.2M Anaergia sale.Whilst this 30% loss is large, it’s a lot better than >100% of revenue average loss in FY21. 1H report will reveal if this impairment is sufficient.
    3- Revenue grew by 14% in FY21 (but see concerns below)
    4- Management continues to indicate a further 30% cost reduction achievable with Gen 3.0 and potentially more.
    5- Growing list of installed sites, experience and credibility to solve customer needs (mobile tower example, larger orders, etc)
    6- Growing size of orders (2MWhrs Anaergia and 600kWhs Semini)
    7
    8Concerns
    9- $454,647 recognised loss already on US$1.2M Anaergia sale.Whilst this ~30% loss is large, it’s a lot better than >100% of revenue average gross sales loss in FY21. 1H report will reveal if this impairment is sufficient (good news if that proves to be the case).
    10- 51% of revenue from a single customer, remaining 49% split across just 4 more.
    11- Note 12.Creative accounting?$671,237 of "Revenue not yet invoiced".Therefore, invoiced revenue slumped 20% in FY21.
    12- Note 6.What underlying change has caused half of revenue to be "sale of goods over time" when all was previously at a point in time?
    13- Cash burn with every sale indicates more cash likely needed in FY22 (beyond what's already been announced/completed).
    14- ~$1M Impairments of raw materials, ~$0.5M impairment of the Anaergia sales contract and expensing~$1M of production labour in FY21 will boost FY22 1H earnings significantly (and artificially).
    15
    16Ugly
    17- Cost of the units still needs to reduce by >65% on FY21 costs to breakeven on a marginal cost basis.30% red'n for Gen3 wouldn’t appear to even get consumables below unit sales price … but on other hand, 30% impairment on Anaergia (if proven sufficient) indicates this may be achievable.
    18- Still significantly impairment of inventory at end of every year.
 
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